Full Breakdown
Andris Kulbergs’ United List Poised to Lead Pro-Ukraine Coalition in Latvia
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Election Outcome
On October 3, Latvians voted in a parliamentary election that is expected to keep Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs in office. Partial results showed his centrist United List leading with roughly one-third of the vote and enough seats to seek a governing majority in the 100-member Saeima. Voter turnout was reported at 51.8 %.
Background & Context
Kulbergs, a 47-year-old businessman, became prime minister in May after the previous coalition collapsed over stray Ukrainian military drones that entered Latvian airspace. The incidents, blamed on Russian interference, heightened security concerns ahead of the election. Latvia, a NATO and EU member with a population of 1.9 million, borders Russia and Belarus.
Data & Statistics
- United List: 35.3 % / 36.6 % of votes counted; 42 seats.
- Latvia First (populist): 13.1 % / 13.4 %.
- Sovereign Power (pro-Russian): 11.7 %.
- National Alliance (nationalist): 8.9 %.
- Turnout: 51.8 % (down from 59.4 % in 2022).
- Defence spending target: 5 % of GDP.
Official Statements & Responses
Kulbergs reiterated his commitment to a “hard line” toward Moscow, arguing that any economic ties with Russia constitute a strategic weakness. He pledged to expand anti-drone capabilities and maintain defence spending at the 5 % GDP level throughout his term, while emphasizing continued support for Ukraine.
Political scientist Roberts Kits of the Latvian Strategy and Economic Research Institute noted that United List could form a majority coalition with either the nationalist National Alliance or the liberal Progressives, though the fragmented parliament may complicate negotiations. Kits also observed that pro-Kremlin parties, despite modest gains, are unlikely to influence government policy.
Criticism & Opposition
Pro-Kremlin parties, including Sovereign Power and Latvia First, argue that Latvia should halt aid to Ukraine and prioritize domestic cost-of-living concerns, especially for the Russian-speaking minority.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on United List’s exact vote share: Straitstimes reports 35.3 %, Japan Times cites 36.6 %, while a Reuters poll earlier in the campaign placed the party at about 14 % of the vote. No source provides a final, certified result, leaving the precise margin unresolved. The threshold for coalition formation depends on how many other parties surpass the 5 % entry barrier, a detail not yet confirmed.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such a result,” — Andris Kulbergs
- “We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win” — Andris Kulbergs
- “His message is that (the party) condemns Russia's invasion and stands with Ukraine, but that supporting Ukraine comes at the expense of Latvia's economy,” — Roberts Kits
What’s Next
The Saeima’s first session is scheduled for early November, when coalition talks are expected to intensify. Kulbergs’ ability to secure a governing alliance will determine Latvia’s policy direction on defence spending, anti-drone measures, and continued assistance to Ukraine.