Full Breakdown
Democrats Gain in Key Republican Strongholds Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Poll Findings: Democratic Leads in Senate Races
Recent New York Times/Siena polls of likely voters show Democratic candidates holding or opening leads in five reliably Republican Senate contests. In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 % to 45 % (Sept. 21-30). In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan 50 % to 43 % (Sept. 24-Oct. 1). In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads appointed Sen. Jon Husted 49 % to 46 % (Sept. 22-Oct. 1). In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Rep. Ashley Hinson 48 % to 47 % (Sept. 22-Oct. 1). In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Sen. Roger Marshall 45 % to 43 % (Sept. 22-30).
A Fox News survey (Oct. 2) also places Talarico ahead of Paxton 51 % to 49 % and shows similar Democratic edges in Iowa (Turek 49 %-47 %) and Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed 50 %-49 %).
Texas Governor Race Tightens
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa has overtaken incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott in several recent polls. A ReconMR/Siena poll (Sept. 18) shows Hinojosa ahead 49 %-45 %; a Marist poll later records a 49 %-46 % tie within the margin of error. An N+Univision/YouGov survey (Sept. 9) found both candidates at 47 % with 5 % undecided.
Abbott’s campaign has responded with a $12 million advertising blitz targeting Hinojosa’s legislative record on property taxes and data-center policy, citing a claimed 15-point decline in his rural approval since 2018.
Background & Context
Texas and Alaska have not elected Democratic senators since the early 1990s, and Texas has not had a Democratic governor since 1995. The 2024 presidential election saw former President Donald Trump win both states by double-digit margins, yet the latest polling indicates voter dissatisfaction with the economy, AI policy, and immigration, as well as low approval for Trump (40 % approve, 57 % disapprove in Texas).
Data & Statistics
- Texas Senate: Talarico 51 % vs Paxton 45 % (NYT/Siena); 51 % vs 49 % (Fox News).
- Alaska Senate: Peltola 50 % vs Sullivan 43 % (NYT/Siena).
- Ohio Senate: Brown 49 % vs Husted 46 % (NYT/Siena).
- Iowa Senate: Turek 48 % vs Hinson 47 % (NYT/Siena).
- Kansas Senate: Hamilton 45 % vs Marshall 43 % (NYT/Siena).
- Texas Governor: Hinojosa 49 % vs Abbott 45 % (ReconMR/Siena); 49 % vs 46 % (Marist).
Official Statements & Responses
The Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), announced a reallocation of $10 million from the North Carolina race to Kansas to protect the GOP Senate majority.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the size of Democratic leads in Texas (six-point gap vs two-point gap). Governor-race polls also conflict: some show Abbott ahead, others show Hinojosa ahead or tied. No poll data are available for several other Republican-held Senate seats, leaving gaps in the national picture.
Verbatim Quotes
- “At some point, you do get conditioned by all that’s happened in the past,” — James Henson, director of the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project
What’s Next
Early voting in Texas opens Oct. 19, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate Leadership Fund’s $10 million shift to Kansas signals continued GOP resource moves ahead of the November elections. Polling firms are expected to release additional state-level surveys in the weeks before the election, which may clarify the current discrepancies.