Full Breakdown
Steve Hilton’s Provocative Ad Fuels GOP Backlash Amid Steep Odds in California Governor Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Controversial Campaign Advertisement
In the final month of the 2026 California gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Steve Hilton released a video titled “Just Try It.” The ad shows two young women on a bed with an LGBTQ+ flag behind them; one woman guides the other’s hand to mark a mail-in ballot for Hilton and then tells her to lick the envelope. The imagery has been described by observers as sexually suggestive and politically provocative.
Party and Public Criticism
The ad prompted immediate condemnation from members of Hilton’s own party. Sonja Shaw, a candidate for state superintendent of public instruction, called the advertisement “creepy, weird, disturbing garbage” and said it exemplifies why some voters are leaving the Republican Party. **Rep.
Hilton’s Defense
He framed the ad as a tongue-in-cheek effort to draw attention to his message.
Polling Landscape
Multiple polls released in September show a substantial lead for Democratic incumbent Xavier Becerra. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted September 15 to 20 among 4,512 likely voters found Becerra ahead by 25 points, 58 % to 33 % (margin of error 2 points). An earlier Berkeley survey covering September 4 to 10 of 1,103 likely voters recorded a 60 %–38 % advantage for Becerra (margin of error 3.8 points). A SurveyUSA poll over the same September 15-20 period reported Becerra at 55 % and Hilton at 33 % (margin of error 4.6 points). The Public Policy Institute of California produced a similar result, with Becerra leading 60 % to 38 %. Prediction-market data from Polymarket listed Becerra with a 96 % chance of winning and Hilton with 4 %.
Historical and Demographic Context
Hilton’s bid comes after a two-decade stretch in which no Republican has won a statewide office in California. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 4.6 million voters, a near 2-to-1 advantage. The campaign is bolstered by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, though Trump remains unpopular among the broader California electorate. GOP consultant Mike Murphy, who advised former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, warned that “the math is very hard,” noting the registration gap and the “Trump dynamic.”
Upcoming Election Milestones
The only scheduled general-election debate between Hilton and Becerra took place on September 30, covering taxes, immigration, and artificial intelligence. The gubernatorial election is slated for November 3.
Outlook
Given the consistent double-digit polling gaps, the entrenched Democratic advantage, and the intra-party criticism sparked by the “Just Try It” ad, Hilton faces a steep uphill battle. Analysts note that even a modest shift—capturing a quarter of the electorate that is dissatisfied with the status quo—would be required for a competitive outcome, a scenario many deem unlikely in the current political environment.