Full Breakdown
Kulbergs’ United List Wins Historic Victory in Latvia’s Parliamentary Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Election Outcome
On October 3, 2026, Latvia’s 100-seat Saeima was contested. The centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, secured roughly 35 % of the vote and 42 seats—the largest single-party haul since independence in 1991. Voter turnout was about 51.8 %. The next-largest forces were Latvia First (?13 %/17 seats) and Sovereign Power (?11.7 %/15 seats).
Background & Context
Kulbergs became prime minister in May 2026 after a coalition collapsed over stray military drones that entered Latvian airspace during the Russia-Ukraine war. Latvia, a NATO and EU member bordering Russia and Belarus, has made national security and support for Ukraine central election issues, keeping defence spending at 5 % of GDP.
Data & Statistics
- United List: 35.3 %–35.6 % of votes; 41–42 seats.
- Latvia First: 13 % of votes; 17 seats.
- Sovereign Power: 11.7 % of votes; 15 seats.
- National Alliance: 8.9 % of votes; 10 seats.
- Progressives: 7.8 % of votes; 9 seats.
- Turnout: 51.8 % (down from 59.4 % in 2022).
Official Statements & Responses
Kulbergs reiterated his commitment to robust aid to Ukraine and to preserving the 5 % defence-budget target, while promising to expand anti-drone capabilities. President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Kulbergs, calling the result a “convincing victory” that underscores Latvia’s “unwavering friendship and support” for Ukraine.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on United List’s exact vote share and seat count: some report 35.3 % and 42 seats, others cite 35.4 %–35.6 % with 41 seats. The variation reflects differing exit-poll methodologies and timing of final counts. No source provides a definitive breakdown of how many parties will clear the 5 % threshold, leaving coalition arithmetic uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy... a strong border region,” — Andris Kulbergs
- “We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win” — Andris Kulbergs
- “I congratulate Andris Kulbergs on his convincing victory in the parliamentary elections in Latvia,” — President Volodymyr Zelensky
What’s Next
Kulbergs must now negotiate a governing coalition. Political scientists Roberts Kits and Roberts Kets suggest a partnership with either the nationalist National Alliance or the liberal Progressives could secure a majority. The coalition-building process will begin immediately, with the new government required to present a 2027 budget and maintain Latvia’s defence commitments amid regional security concerns.
