Full Breakdown
Kulbergs' United List Wins Historic Victory in Latvia’s Parliamentary Election
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Election Outcome and Immediate Aftermath
On October 3, 2026, Latvia held its 11th parliamentary election. The centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, secured roughly 35 % of the vote and 42 of the 100 Saeima seats, the largest single-party haul since independence. The next-largest force, Latvia First, obtained about 12 %, while the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians alliance earned roughly 11 %. Former coalition partner Union of Greens and Farmers fell below the 5 % threshold. With no majority, Kulbergs will need to negotiate a coalition, most plausibly with the National Alliance (?9–10 seats) and New Unity (?6–7 seats).
Background and Security Context
Kulbergs became prime minister in May after the previous government collapsed over stray Ukrainian drones that entered Latvian airspace in 2022. Latvia, a NATO and EU member bordering Russia and Belarus, maintains defence spending at 5 % of GDP, one of the alliance’s highest ratios. The campaign focused on Russian hybrid threats, living-cost pressures and demographic challenges.
Data and Statistics
- Turnout: about 1.56 million eligible voters; roughly 51 % turned out.
- United List: 35 % -> 42 seats.
- Latvia First: ?12 % -> 17 seats.
- Sovereign Power/Young Latvians: ?11 % -> 15 seats.
- National Alliance: ?9 % -> 10 seats.
- New Unity: ?6.5 % -> 7 seats.
- Defence budget 2026: projected 4.7 %–4.9 % of GDP with a legislative floor at 5 %.
- Military aid to Ukraine: roughly 0.25 % of GDP for 2026, part of a programme delivering about €665 million since 2022.
Why It Matters
The result reinforces Latvia’s pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO trajectory as the Baltic states confront Russian aggression. Maintaining a 5 % defence spend-ment and expanding anti-drone capabilities are seen as essential to safeguard the alliance’s eastern flank. Domestically, the vote highlights economic discontent; populist parties that appealed to the Russian-speaking minority gained ground.
Official Statements and Responses
Kulbergs pledged to keep military aid to Ukraine and to avoid “economic ties with Russia.” He ruled out cooperation with parties he described as “pro-Russian,” specifically Latvia First and Sovereign Power. Political scientist Roberts Kits noted that United List could form a majority with either the nationalist National Alliance or the liberal Progressives, stressing the “huge responsibility” for Kulbergs.
Criticism and Opposition
Pro-Kremlin rivals argued that Latvia should stop aid to Ukraine and focus on the cost-of-living crisis, especially for the Russian-speaking minority. Sovereign Power called for “peace talks” and an end to financing the war, while Latvia First campaigned on lower tariffs for Russia. Both parties have been largely excluded from coalition talks.
On-the-Ground Reports
A 21-year-old student, Megija Nordena, told Reuters that “the priority, in my view, is, of course, security – security in Latvia,” reflecting voters’ focus on defence.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
- Vote share: United List’s percentage varies (35.3 %–35.6 %–35.44 %).
- Seat allocation: Some outlets list 41 seats, others 42.
- Turnout figures: Reported as 51 %, 51.8 %, and 51.81 %.
These discrepancies stem from different counting stages; the official result is scheduled for confirmation on October 19, 2026.
What’s Next
Coalition talks are set to begin after the October 19 confirmation, with President Edgars Rinkevics consulting party leaders. Security measures—including the deployment of four German Eurofighter jets—will continue, and the government plans to pursue talks on joining France’s nuclear deterrence initiative. The new Saeima will shape how Latvia balances defence commitments with domestic economic pressures.