Full Breakdown
2026 Strong El Niño Fuels Record Heat and Rain Across the Globe
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
In 2026 a rapidly intensifying El Niño produced extreme weather on multiple continents. Australia recorded its second-hottest September, with night-time temperatures topping all previous Septembers since 1910. Central Tokyo logged 629 mm of rain by September 28, the second-highest September total, including a single-day 156 mm on September 21. The Pacific saw Hurricane Rachel reach Category 3 with sustained winds near 120 mph, while the Niño 3.4 region recorded a daily average sea-surface temperature of 85.73 °F on September 29, the highest ever measured. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts the El Niño will remain very strong through February 2027, peaking late in 2026.
Background & Context
El Niño is a natural phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in which unusually warm surface waters develop across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This warming reshapes atmospheric circulation, altering jet streams, pressure patterns and moisture transport worldwide. While El Niño itself is not caused by human greenhouse-gas emissions, a warmer climate raises baseline ocean and air temperatures, allowing the same circulation changes to generate more intense heat, rainfall and storm activity.
Data & Statistics
- Australian September average temperature: 2.71 °C above the 1961-1990 mean; minimum temperature 2.52 °C above average.
- Snow depth in Kosciuszko National Park fell to zero—first September zero-snow event since monitoring began in 1954.
- Hurricane Rachel: Category 3, maximum sustained winds ?120 mph (195 km/h).
- Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature: 85.73 °F on September 29, surpassing the previous record of 85.68 °F set in November 2015.
Official Statements & Responses
- The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported the September heat marks the first month-long mean temperature above average since 2004, attributing the trend to both global warming and the intensifying El Niño.
- The WMO described the current El Niño as “very strong,” noting exceptional ocean heat and projecting continued intensity into early 2027.
- NOAA labeled the September 29 temperature reading as preliminary, pending additional ship and buoy data.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There’s only one clear driver of this and that’s climate change,” — Dr Linden Ashcroft, University of Melbourne
- “We have not had a hurricane in the Atlantic basin from the start of hurricane season until September 21st. That’s been our season this year, and that’s the first time that’s happened in over 100 years,” — Delaney Willis
Why It Matters
The heatwave in Australia erased September snowpack, threatening winter tourism and water resources in the alpine region. Tokyo’s record rainfall raises landslide and flash-flood risks in densely populated districts, while saturated soils strain drainage infrastructure. Hurricane Rachel’s offshore path generated hazardous surf and heavy rain for western Mexico, showing how storms can impact communities without making landfall. Record ocean warmth in the Niño 3.4 zone fuels higher evaporation rates, potentially intensifying tropical cyclone development in the eastern Pacific and affecting marine ecosystems.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- NOAA’s preliminary sea-surface temperature figure differs from the final value to be released in early October; the exact peak temperature remains unconfirmed.
- While the WMO stresses that El Niño alone does not cause individual events, Japanese officials note the interaction of multiple atmospheric features, leaving precise attribution of Tokyo’s rainfall unsettled.
What’s Next
The WMO expects the El Niño to peak late in 2026 and to influence global weather patterns into 2027. Meteorological agencies in the United States and Japan will continue monitoring rainfall, temperature and storm activity, issuing advisories as conditions evolve. Communities in flood-prone and drought-sensitive regions are urged to prepare for heightened risk throughout the remainder of the year.