Mary Peltola Takes 7-Point Lead in Alaska Senate Race Amid Staff Allegations

A New York Times/Siena University poll of 504 likely Alaska voters (Sept 24-Oct 1) found former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola at 50 % versus incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 43 %, a 7-point edge that exceeds the poll’s ±5.1-point margin of error. It is the widest lead Peltola has posted in recent surveys.

NewsweekForbesNew York PostNYT Poll Shows Democrats Leading in Republican Strongholds Like Alaska and Texas New York TimesThe Guardian

Earlier September polls were tighter. An Alaska Survey Research poll (Sept 10-12) gave Peltola a +5-point margin (±3). A Quantus Insight poll (Sept 28-30) showed Sullivan ahead 46.1 % to 45.5 % for Peltola, within its ~8-point error. Trafalgar Group (Sept 22-24) placed Sullivan up 1 point, and co/efficient (Sept 14-17) gave him a +2-point edge.

Newsweek

A Sept 23 report alleged former aides heard Peltola use the slur “faggot” toward staffers and the term “retarded” elsewhere, and that she once shoved a staffer aside. Peltola’s campaign denied the accusations.

Newsweek

• Peltola campaign: Denied the allegations and called the timing a political attack.

Newsweek

• Sullivan campaign: Ran a TV ad via the Last Frontier PAC that referenced the New York Times exposé.

Newsweek

• Stock-trading controversy: The Alaska Current reported Sullivan violated the STOCK Act and earned an estimated $2 million from trades during his two Senate terms, making him the most active trader in Alaska’s congressional delegation. Peltola, who backs a ban on congressional stock trading, reports no significant individual holdings.

Newsweek

• Poll lead: Peltola 50 % vs. Sullivan 43 % (NYT/Siena).

Newsweek

• Margin of error: ±5.1 pts.

Newsweek

• Other polls: +5 % for Peltola (Alaska Survey); –0.6 % (Quantus); –1 % (Trafalgar); –2 % (co/efficient).

Newsweek

• Stock gains: Sullivan’s estimated $2 million profit (Alaska Current).

Newsweek

Democrats need four net Senate seats to retake the chamber from a 53-47 Republican majority. Alaska is one of five traditionally Republican states where a NYT/Siena poll shows a Democratic lead, alongside Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. The same poll recorded 48 % of likely voters strongly disapproving of President Donald Trump’s job performance, up from 43 % in June.

NYT Poll Shows Democrats Leading in Republican Strongholds Like Alaska and Texas New York TimesNew York PostForbesNewsweekThe Guardian

• Poll discrepancies: The NYT/Siena poll shows a solid Peltola lead, while three other September polls placed Sullivan ahead or within a narrow margin, reflecting different sample sizes (504-1,352 respondents) and timing.

Newsweek

• Impact of staff allegations: The NYT report highlighted staff grievances, but subsequent polling indicated voters remained “unwilling to change their votes” despite expressed disappointment. No quantitative data show how the allegations have shifted intent.

Forbes

• Future developments: No hearings or investigations have been announced regarding the STOCK Act violation or the staff-behavior allegations as the November election approaches.

Forbes