Story perspectives

Raman Leads Bass 45%-21% in Berkeley Poll

By Drooid · Oct 5, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman are courting Latino voters ahead of the Nov 3 election.
A UC Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll (Sept 15-20) shows Raman at 45% Latino support, Bass at 21%.
Overall, 33% of likely voters and 34% of Latino voters remain undecided.
Kalshi prices Raman’s win probability at 60% with $98 million traded.
Mail-in ballots become available on Oct 1, and the candidates debate on Oct 13.

History

Historical Context

In the 1992 United States presidential election, Bill Clinton captured the White House by securing a decisive 45% share of Latino voters nationwide. The Democratic National Committee reported that Latino turnout rose 12% from 1988, delivering 7.5 million votes that tipped key swing states. Today, mayoral contenders Karen Bass and Nithya Raman echo the pattern, with a Berkeley poll giving Raman 45% Latino support versus Bass’s 21%. Analysts warn that such polarized Latino preferences could shape council composition, influencing housing policy and climate initiatives for the next decade.

1 of 2

Story summary

Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman are courting Latino voters ahead of the Nov 3 election.
A UC Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll (Sept 15-20) shows Raman at 45% Latino support, Bass at 21%.
Overall, 33% of likely voters and 34% of Latino voters remain undecided.
Kalshi prices Raman’s win probability at 60% with $98 million traded.
Mail-in ballots become available on Oct 1, and the candidates debate on Oct 13.

1 / 2