Poland Moves Toward “Pre-War” Legislation Amid Heightened NATO Concerns

Polish lawmakers are drafting a bill described by a source close to the president as preparing the state for a “pre-war period.” The draft, prepared by the defence ministry, aims to strengthen defence capabilities and tighten coordination between the armed forces and internal security services. The legislation follows Poland’s 2022 overhaul that expanded the army, accelerated recruitment and introduced new American-made weapon systems.

Newsweek

In September, Polish officials labelled a fire at a Starlink site used by the Ukrainian military an “act of sabotage” and said prosecutors suspect Russian involvement. A Russian drone struck the engine of a passenger train traveling from Kyiv to Warsaw the previous month, and a Russian military helicopter entered Polish airspace after crossing from the Kaliningrad exclave. Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that intelligence assessments indicate a “real risk” of additional drone and missile incursions into NATO airspace. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said Warsaw will increase helicopter and fighter-jet flights because Russian provocations are expanding into areas previously considered safe. Denmark’s military and foreign intelligence service reported a rise in Russian cyber-attacks and sabotage, describing Moscow as “more willing to take risks.” Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to use the full Russian arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend Kaliningrad if it were attacked.

Newsweek

NATO officials have warned that Russia could launch a limited hybrid-warfare operation or a small-scale land grab against a member state as early as this fall. The alliance denounced “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” and affirmed that NATO exercises in the Baltic Sea do not pose a threat to Russia. A Danish Defence Intelligence Service report identified a “low but growing risk” of a limited Russian attack on NATO’s eastern edge.

Newsweek

Poland plans to raise active-duty troops to 300,000 by 2039—a more than three-fold increase from 2015—and to maintain an additional 200,000 reservists. Defence spending is projected to exceed 4.81 percent of GDP this year, making Poland NATO’s top spender as a share of national output.

Newsweek

The legislative and force-expansion measures are intended to bolster the alliance’s eastern flank, particularly the Suwalki Gap that links Kaliningrad to Belarus. By formalising a “pre-war” posture, Poland seeks to deter further Russian hybrid actions and to assure NATO partners that the alliance can respond to any limited incursion or sabotage attempt along its borders.

Newsweek