Full Breakdown
Trump Blames Democrats and Ukraine for U.S. Fuel-Price Surge
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
On October 5, 2026, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the recent rise in U.S. He framed the spike as a consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities and refinery shutdowns in Democratic-led states, shifting focus away from the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.
Data & Statistics
- The American Automobile Association (AAA) reports the national average price for regular gasoline at $4.37 per gallon, up from $4.15 a month earlier and $3.13 at the same time last year.
- Exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen 97 percent since the war began, limiting global supply.
- In June, the International Energy Agency noted Russian refinery throughput hit its lowest level in two decades, with diesel production down 30 percent over the past 18 months.
- S&P Global analysis attributes a 17 percent reduction in California’s refining capacity to the shutdown of two refineries over the past year.
Official Statements & Analyst Views
She added that damage to Russian refineries and the risk of further U.S. sanctions exacerbate the situation, while underlying volatility in Middle-Eastern flows and reduced strategic buffers remain the core issue.
Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, explained that the United States urged certain European Union members to release strategic reserves or face a potential U.S. diesel export ban, prompting France and Germany to act and temporarily lowering oil-price futures.
Political Impact and Public Opinion
The blame-shifting comes as the midterm elections in November approach, with both parties seeking to avoid voter backlash over fuel costs. An AP-NORC poll cited by Al Jazeera found 65 percent of Americans attribute higher prices to Trump’s policies, while 61 percent say the U.S. economy is worse off than when he returned to office. Analysts note that most current polls project Democratic gains in both chambers of Congress.
What's Next
G7 leaders have agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves over four months to temper price volatility. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains at its lowest level since 1982, suggesting continued pressure on supply buffers as the election cycle intensifies.
Verbatim Quotes
- “What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats,” — Donald Trump, president
- “The ongoing conflicts with Iran and Russia’s war with Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets, but Middle Eastern flows are far from normal,” — Rachel Ziemba
- “US tells some [European Union] members to release ‘strategic reserves’ or face a potential US diesel export ban, pushing France and Germany to do so, oil prices, along with gasoline and diesel futures strongly lower as a result,” — Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy
- “The damage to Russia’s refineries – and risk of more US sanctions on those who process Russian oil – are exacerbating the situation, but the underlying issue is still the volatile flows from the Middle East, the greater difficulty getting oil products out and the lower buffers in place,” — Rachel Ziemba