Full Breakdown
RNZ-Reid Research Poll Shows National Decline, Greens Surge and Opportunity Party as Potential Kingmaker
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Poll Highlights: Shifts in Party Support
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, conducted online with 1,000 eligible voters between September 24 and October 1, 2026, indicates that the two major parties together now command 56.7 % of the party vote, down from 61.3 % in August and 64.9 % at the 2023 election. Labour fell 1.4 points to 30.8 %, while National slipped further, leaving the Greens with the biggest gain—up 4.6 points to 14.8 %, their strongest showing this term. Opportunity edged up 0.2 points to 5.5 %, just clearing the 5 % threshold for a second consecutive poll. New Zealand First dropped to 10.6 % (-1.3), Act rose to 9 % (+1.3), and Te Pati Maori slipped to 2 % (-1). The poll’s margin of error is reported at ± 3.1 percentage points, and the party-vote figures exclude the 3 % undecided and the 2.6 % who said they would not vote.
Potential Kingmaker: Opportunity Party
With a projected seven MPs, Opportunity could provide the decisive bloc for either side. Under a basic seat projection—assuming Te Pati Maori wins at least one electorate and no overhangs—National would hold 32 seats, New Zealand First 13 and Act 11, totaling 56 seats. Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori would hold 57 seats. Adding Opportunity’s seven MPs would lift the existing coalition to 63 seats or the Labour-Greens-Te Pati Maori bloc to 64. Labour and the Greens could also achieve a majority with Opportunity alone, reaching 62 seats. Falling below the 5 % threshold would remove Opportunity from Parliament unless it wins an electorate, dramatically altering these calculations. Overhang scenarios could further expand the 120-seat Parliament.
Leadership Ratings
National leader Christopher Luxon’s preferred-prime-minister rating fell 2.8 points to 17.1 %, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins edged up 0.6 points to 21.9 %. Winston Peters remained third at 11.2 %, and Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick rose 1.3 points to 8.7 %, her highest in the series. Another 14.4 % of respondents selected no preferred prime minister. More than half (53.3 %) rate Luxon’s performance as poor, versus 29.6 % as good, giving him a net rating of -23.7 —his worst under his leadership. Hipkins holds a net rating of -3.6. Overall, 53.1 % of respondents say New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 31.6 % who say it is heading right.
Official Reactions to Split-Voting Strategy
Te Pati Maori has openly promoted split-voting to engineer a coalition outcome, a tactic also endorsed by former National figures Don Brash and Harry Mowbray. National has warned the approach could shut senior list MPs out of Parliament. Luxon dismissed the idea as “insanely stupid,” and former National leader Sir John Key called it “the opposite of clever.”
Implications for the 2026 Election
If the poll’s trends hold, neither the current National-Labour coalition nor a Labour-Greens-Te Pati Maori alliance would secure a majority without the support of a smaller party. Opportunity’s marginal position above the threshold makes it a pivotal player, while the Greens’ surge and National’s continued decline reshape the strategic calculations for all major parties as the election approaches.