Texas Senate Race Heats Up as Paxton and Talarico Vie for Historic Win

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen. John Cornyn. He faces James Talarico, a Democratic state representative, in a contest analysts describe as the most competitive Senate race in Texas in decades. A Democratic pickup would help shift control of the Senate, while Republicans have not lost a statewide election in Texas since 1994.

Texas Tribune

Combined advertising expenditures by the two candidates and their super-PACs have exceeded $153 million. NPR reports Paxton-aligned groups have spent roughly $175 million, outspending Talarico-aligned groups by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Paxton’s campaign raised $18 million in the third quarter, double the prior quarter. Talarico’s campaign raised more than $30 million in the second quarter; third-quarter figures are pending.

Newsweek

Fundraising in traditionally Republican ZIP codes also favors Talarico. FEC data shows Talarico raised about $1.3 million from individual donors in eleven Trump-won districts, compared with roughly $422,000 for Paxton. The Woodlands area alone delivered $238,622 to Talarico versus $39,281 to Paxton.

Newsweek

September surveys show Talarico holding a narrow lead. A New York Times/Siena poll (Sept 21-30) found Talarico at 51 % and Paxton at 45 %. A Marist poll (Sept 17-20) reported a 6-point gap (50 % to 44 %). A Fox News poll (Sept 24-28) showed 51 % to 49 %. Internal Republican-commissioned polls have placed Paxton ahead by three points, but these are not publicly verified.

Newsweek

Paxton’s senior adviser Nick Maddux has denied coordination with super-PACs, calling media reports of Paxton’s leaked remarks “manipulated nonsense.” Maddux emphasized Paxton’s gratitude for national support and noted modest improvement in internal polling.

Newsweek

• Poll Discrepancies – Most nonpartisan surveys show Talarico ahead; internal Republican polls suggest Paxton leads, with margins ranging from a tie to three points.

Newsweek

• Spending Figures – NPR cites total spending of $153 million, with Paxton’s side at $175 million and Talarico’s at $71 million. Newsweek reports Republicans spent $122 million in September and have reserved an additional $66 million through Election Day.

Newsweek

• Control of Campaign Messaging – Paxton’s leaked audio claims campaign decisions are driven from Washington, D.C. Maddux counters that Paxton was referring specifically to super-PAC influence.

Newsweek

• “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming – you know – from D.C.,” — General Ken Paxton, Texas attorney

The Guardian

• “So to be honest with you, the numbers – when we did that convention – it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” — Nick Maddux, Paxton’s campaign adviser

The Guardian

• “Republicans from all corners of Texas have given to the campaign because they know what’s at stake,” — Nick Maddux, Paxton’s campaign adviser

The Hill

• “It’s not the people — it’s the seat,” — General Ken Paxton, Texas attorney

Texas Tribune

The election is scheduled for November 3. Both campaigns continue massive ad buys, with Paxton launching a $20 million television push in the final weeks. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball list the race as a toss-up, indicating the outcome will hinge on voter turnout and the remaining advertising blitz.

Newsweek