Full Breakdown
Sununu Gains Ground on Pappas in New Hampshire Senate Race
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Race Overview
Democrat Chris Pappas and former Republican senator John E. Sununu are contesting the open U.S. Senate seat left vacant by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. The Granite State has not elected a Republican senator in more than 15 years, and the 2024 presidential vote was decided by less than 3 percentage points in favor of former Vice President Kamala Harris. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as a toss-up, reflecting its potential impact on the narrow Republican majority in the Senate.
Recent Poll Numbers
- A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct 2 – Oct 4 among 979 likely voters showed 49 % for Pappas and 44 % for Sununu, a five-point gap that narrowed from an 11-point lead for Pappas in the previous month’s poll (45 % vs 34 %). The poll’s margin of error is 3 percentage points.
- The University of New Hampshire poll from Sept 17 – Sept 21 (1,418 likely voters) recorded 50 % for Pappas and 42 % for Sununu, with 4 % undecided.
- An August poll (conducted Aug 20 – Aug 24, 1,878 likely voters) found Sununu at 45 % and Pappas at 43 %, a statistical tie within the 2.3-point margin of error.
- A Coefficient poll (Sept 9 – Sept 11, 958 likely voters) also showed a deadlock at 46 % each, with favorability ratings of 37 % vs 51 % (Pappas) and 41 % vs 47 % (Sununu).
Expert Analysis
He adds that the outcome will affect Senate majority calculations beyond New Hampshire.
Implications for Senate Control
Because Republicans hold a slim majority in both chambers, securing the New Hampshire seat would help offset anticipated losses elsewhere, according to Agronoff’s assessment. The race’s toss-up status and shifting poll dynamics keep it a focal point for national party strategies as the midterms approach.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Holding the Senate is not a NH only story. Republicans need this seat or a similar pickup to offset losses elsewhere. If Sununu keeps closing, it becomes part of the majority math. If the lead holds near five, it is a warning, not a path.” — Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University