Full Breakdown
Trump’s Low Approval and Cash-Payment Push Ahead of the 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low—32 % overall and 24 % among Hispanic voters, according to a six-day Reuters-Ipsos poll. The poll also found 52 % of Hispanic respondents plan to vote Democratic in the November 3 midterms, versus 26 % for Republicans. In response, Trump has begun a 32-day rally tour, reiterated promises of direct cash payments to voters, and signed an executive order easing limits on tax-free red-dyed diesel for farmers.
Background & Context
Trump’s 2024 victory was aided by strong Latino support, which Pew estimated gave him 48 % of the Hispanic vote. The Reuters-Ipsos poll shows that advantage has vanished. Experts cite cost-of-living concerns, the war with Iran, and hard-line immigration enforcement as drivers of the slide. Republicans, holding narrow majorities in both chambers, view the midterms as a referendum on Trump’s second term.
Data & Statistics
- Overall approval: 32 % (Reuters-Ipsos)
- Hispanic approval: 24 % (Reuters-Ipsos)
- Hispanic voting intention: 52 % Democratic, 26 % Republican (Reuters-Ipsos)
- Independent voters favor Democrats by 16 points (CBS/YouGov)
- Senate polls show Democratic leads in Alaska, Ohio and Texas (Siena/NY Times)
- White House announced a one-time $90 Medicare-Part B payment for roughly 20 million seniors and a $500 refund for about 1 million ACA recipients
- Trump has pledged a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers
Why It Matters
Low presidential approval and a shrinking Latino coalition threaten Republican prospects in key Senate and House races. Democrats argue the shift among Hispanic voters could deliver the net gain needed to retake both chambers. Trump’s cash-payment promises raise constitutional and fiscal questions, as any disbursement would require congressional authorization and could add to the deficit.
Official Statements & Responses
Trump framed the $90 Medicare checks as a return of “healthcare dollars” to seniors and said the diesel order will “save millions for farmers.” Republican Senate leader John Kennedy warned that the cost-of-living crisis is the “biggest issue” for voters. Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch noted that Democrats have prepared legal defenses against any attempt to interfere with ballot handling.
Criticism & Opposition
Democratic leaders argue the proposed payments constitute an illegal use of federal funds to influence the election. Rep. Jamie Raskin said, “We are very well aware that all they have is a bag of dirty tricks at this point.” Legal scholars point out that the Constitution provides no mechanism for a president to unilaterally allocate such funds, and courts have blocked similar attempts to restrict mail-in voting.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The Reuters-Ipsos poll reports 24 % Hispanic approval, while Pew’s earlier estimate placed Trump’s 2024 Hispanic support at 48 %. NBC/Telemundo polling shows overall Latino approval at 27 %, a slight variance. Senate race polls differ on margins: some list Democratic leads in Alaska, Ohio and Texas, others label those contests “toss-ups.” No definitive data exist on how many voters would receive the promised $5,000 checks, as congressional approval has not been secured.
What’s Next
The November 3 midterms remain scheduled, and Trump’s rally blitz will continue through the final weeks before the election. The $90 Medicare payments are slated to arrive in early October, while the $5,000 dividend remains contingent on Republican control of both chambers and congressional action. Legal challenges to any election-related actions by the Trump administration are expected to intensify as the vote approaches.