Full Breakdown
One Year After Its Launch, Trump’s Gaza Plan Remains Stalled
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Limited Progress on Ceasefire, Disarmament and Reconstruction
The Trump-led “Board of Peace” unveiled a 20-point plan in early 2025 calling for a ceasefire to begin on October 10, 2025, the release of the remaining hostages from the 2023 Hamas attacks, and a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. A year later, Israeli forces still control roughly two-thirds of the enclave, Hamas has not been fully disarmed, and reconstruction funding falls far short of the estimated $71.4 billion needed over the next decade.
Background & Context
The plan’s first phase combined a suspension of hostilities, a limited Israeli pull-back, prisoner exchanges and a surge in humanitarian aid. It proposed a “yellow line” withdrawal that would leave Israel in control of 53 % of Gaza; the military now controls about two-thirds. A technocratic Palestinian governing body, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, was appointed in January 2026 and is led by Ali Shaath, but it has not entered Gaza.
Data & Statistics
- Casualties: Gaza’s health ministry reports at least 1,400 Palestinian deaths since the ceasefire; the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) record five Israeli soldiers killed by Palestinian militants.
- Humanitarian trucks: An August IPC report shows an average of 227 trucks per day delivering aid from the ceasefire to the end of May, well below the 600-truck minimum stipulated in the plan. Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) claims around 600 trucks enter daily.
- Hunger: More than 2 million people remain in acute hunger.
- Reconstruction funding: The Board announced a $2.45 billion reconstruction package in September 2026, a fraction of the $71.4 billion estimate released by the EU and UN in April 2026.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Donald Trump called the roadmap “historic” and said Hamas had accepted a 15-point disarmament plan.
- Hamas said it would hand over weapons to the technocratic authority but rejected the term “disarmament.”
- Israel maintains its strikes target Hamas and will not withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed.
- COGAT did not comment on the IPC truck figures; Israeli officials assert the daily flow of 600 trucks meets humanitarian needs and justify restrictions on items such as metal tent poles and engine oil.
- U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers outlined a long-term International Stabilization Force (ISF) plan involving 20,000 troops and training of 12,000 Palestinian police, with contributions pledged by Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Albania, Kosovo and Uganda.
Criticism & Opposition
- Israeli right-wing politicians have called for “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians; a defence-ministry office created in 2025 to oversee such emigration was later retracted after Arab-state opposition.
- Aid agencies argue Israel’s restrictions hamper reconstruction and worsen humanitarian conditions.
- Israeli skeptics say Hamas’s willingness to hand over weapons does not constitute genuine disarmament, making any withdrawal premature.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Truck deliveries: Israel asserts a daily flow of 600 trucks, while the IPC records 227 trucks, highlighting divergent views on humanitarian compliance.
- Reconstruction needs: The Board’s $2.45 billion pledge contrasts sharply with the EU/UN estimate of $71.4 billion, leaving a large funding gap.
What’s Next
- Israeli general election: Scheduled for October 27, 2026, the first since the October 7, 2023 attack, could reshape Gaza policy.
- ISF formation: Deployment depends on progress in Hamas disarmament and Israeli political calculations.
- Humanitarian outlook: Monitoring aid deliveries and hunger levels will remain essential as the situation stays acute.