Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Record Lows Amid Hispanic Shift Ahead of Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Recent national surveys show President Donald Trump’s overall job approval in the low-30 percent range, while his support among Hispanic voters has fallen to roughly one-quarter. The Reuters/Ipsos six-day poll reports 32 percent overall approval and 24 percent Hispanic approval. An NBC Telemundo poll records 27 percent Hispanic approval and indicates that only 26 percent of Hispanic registered voters plan to back Republican candidates in the November 3 midterms.
Background & Context
Trump’s 2024 victory relied on a surge in Hispanic support that reached nearly 48 percent of the Latino vote. Since taking office, his administration has pursued an immigration crackdown, launched a war in Iran, and faced persistent inflation. Analysts link the erosion of Hispanic backing to cost-of-living concerns and perceptions that immigration enforcement has gone “too far.”
Data & Statistics
- Overall approval: Reuters/Ipsos 32 percent; CBS/YouGov 39 percent; AP-NORC 31 percent.
- Hispanic approval: Reuters/Ipsos 24 percent; NBC Telemundo 27 percent; 33 percent among Latino men (NBC Telemundo).
- Voting intentions: 52 percent of Hispanic voters say they will support Democrats in November, versus 26 percent for Republicans.
- Party preference among Latino voters: 59 percent favor Democratic control of Congress, 35 percent favor Republicans (NBC Telemundo).
- Independent voters: 37 percent prefer Democrats, 21 percent Republicans (Reuters/Ipsos).
Why It Matters
The GOP’s narrow congressional majorities hinge on turnout in swing districts with sizable Hispanic populations such as Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Florida. Democratic strategists argue that the decline in Hispanic enthusiasm for Trump could translate into a “democratic wave,” while Republican operatives warn that low enthusiasm may depress turnout.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump dismissed the poll findings, telling a reporter, “I’m doing great,” and blamed “CNN and the media” for the narrative. The White House spokesperson reiterated that the “ultimate poll” is the November 5 2024 election, arguing that the 80 million-voter victory provides a mandate for the administration’s agenda.
Criticism & Opposition
Jeff Miller, a hydro-blaster from Ohio, described an “up-and-down thing” after losing a close friend to deportation, illustrating personal backlash against the policy.
On-the-Ground Reports
A KFF-AP survey of over 2,000 rural voters found a split view on immigration: roughly one-third see the crackdown as beneficial, one-third view it as harmful, and the remainder see no impact. Respondents highlighted both economic reliance on immigrant labor and concerns about community safety.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on Trump’s overall approval (32 percent Reuters/Ipsos vs. 39 percent CBS/YouGov) and Hispanic approval (24 percent Reuters/Ipsos vs. 27 percent NBC Telemundo). No single poll provides a definitive causal analysis, leaving uncertainty about the relative weight of economic versus immigration factors.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There's no floor for Republicans right now,” — Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub
- “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024,” — Davis Ingle, spokesperson
- “What we’re seeing among Hispanic men and their views of President Trump very much diving toward the negative, absolutely look like they’re going to have a massive impact on the midterm elections,” — Harry Enten, CNN data analyst
What's Next
The November 3 midterm elections will be the first major test of how Trump’s low approval, especially among Hispanic voters, influences Republican prospects. Early voting has begun in several states, and upcoming polls will track whether the administration’s economic investments and campaign messaging can reverse the current headwinds.