G7 Strategic Reserve Release Dampens Oil Price Surge Amid Rising Middle-East Exports

G7 nations announced on Friday a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency stockpiles. The move was intended to ease short-term supply concerns that had pushed Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) higher. Following the decision, Brent relinquished most of its prior gains, while WTI fell about 1.6 %. ICE gasoil futures climbed more than 2 % to $1,390.25 a barrel, reflecting the market’s response to the added supply.

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Shipping data released on Monday showed Middle-Eastern crude exports exceeding pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, despite ongoing attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices for Asian markets to six-year lows, further contributing to the price moderation. Meanwhile, OPEC+ postponed its review of 2027 output quotas, citing disruptions from the Iran-related war that have unsettled long-term production forecasts.

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The Houthis claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the Khurais field, citing 50 Saudi-led air and missile strikes in Yemen over the preceding 12 hours. Saudi-backed Yemeni authorities announced a major offensive to retake all territories held by the Iran-aligned Houthis. In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters that Ukraine will intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries.

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G7 leaders pledged to refrain from imposing new energy export restrictions, positioning the reserve release as a temporary buffer while broader supply-chain issues persist. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the Houthi attacks, and Aramco’s price cut signals an effort to maintain market share amid volatile demand. Analysts note that the combination of strategic releases and rebounding Saudi export volumes is sufficient to subdue prices for now, even as the risk of further damage to Gulf energy infrastructure remains.

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• “The G7 decision to tap strategic reserves is taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price, while there's a growing view that Saudi export volumes are moving back toward pre-war levels, even if those barrels are still moving at higher cost and via less efficient routes,” — Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade

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• “That combination is enough to subdue prices for now even though the risks of further damage to energy infrastructure around the Gulf region haven't gone away.” — The Houthis

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