Texas Senate Race: Democrat James Talarico Outpaces Ken Paxton in GOP Strongholds and Holds Lead in Recent Polls

A Houston Chronicle analysis of Federal Election Commission filings shows Talarico raised roughly $1.3 million from individual donors in 11 ZIP codes that voted for Donald Trump in 2024, compared with about $422,000 for Paxton. In The Woodlands area, Talarico collected $238,622 versus Paxton’s $39,281; in the Memorial Villages (ZIP 77024) the gap was $255,116 to $60,643. Across the four Woodlands ZIP codes the split was $98,103 to $19,247. Talarico’s strongest single ZIP code, 78746 (West Lake Hills), delivered $584,863, while Paxton raised $145,365 there.

Newsweek

Talarico entered the race on September 8, 2025, raising $6.2 million in his first three weeks. By the first quarter of 2026 he had added $27 million, and $31.6 million in the second quarter, bringing total receipts to $68.6 million through June 30. He reported $47 million in expenditures, leaving $21.5 million cash on hand. Paxton’s two campaign committees reported $9.2 million raised, $7.5 million spent, and $1.76 million remaining; after winning the May 26 runoff, his campaign disclosed more than $9 million raised in the April-June quarter, the strongest fundraising period of his campaign.

Newsweek

Multiple surveys in September show Talarico ahead in most nonpartisan polls. Marist University (1,139 respondents) found him at 50 % versus Paxton’s 44 %; Emerson College (1,000 respondents) gave him 47 % to 46 %; Slingshot Strategies (1,007 respondents) reported 49 % to 44 %; Big Data Poll (survey through September 26) showed 47 % to 45 % with an 8 % Libertarian share; and the Barbara Jordan Center (1,800 respondents) gave Talarico a one-point edge. Partisan-sponsored polls were tighter: Pulse Decision Science (800 respondents, sponsored by Paxton’s campaign) recorded Paxton at 48 % and Talarico at 45 % with 4 % undecided, while Stratus Intelligence (865 respondents, Republican-funded) showed a 48-48 tie. All margins fall within typical survey error.

Newsweek

A recording obtained by The New York Times captures Paxton saying the September 9-10 Republican convention staged by Trump “dropped our numbers.” Paxton’s senior adviser, Nick Maddux, dismissed the report as “manipulated nonsense” and cited internal polling that placed Paxton three points ahead. Trump, when asked about the claim, said he had not heard Paxton’s comments but acknowledged the convention could have hurt the campaign, while also describing the event as “amazing” with 107 million views.

Newsweek

Talarico’s ability to out-raise Paxton in historically Republican ZIP codes signals shifting donor dynamics in a race Democrats hope to win for the first time since 1988. Combined with a consistent polling advantage—albeit within error margins—the fundraising edge may allow the Democrat to sustain a competitive statewide campaign despite Paxton’s incumbency and recent primary victory.

Newsweek