Full Breakdown
Aurora Forecast for Oct 5-6, 2026
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Core Forecast and Expected Visibility
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a Kp index of 4 for the night of Oct 5, indicating “quite pleasing” auroral activity for locations under the right conditions. NOAA also expects G1-class (minor) geomagnetic storm levels on Oct 5 and an initial G1 storm that should ease to quieter conditions by Oct 6, with a chance of renewed activity on Oct 7. Based on these forecasts, observers in the northern United States and southern Canada may see the aurora borealis from high-latitude, low-light-pollution sites. States most likely to experience visible displays include northern Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota (northern border), Minnesota, Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire. Alaska remains the region with the highest probability.
Solar Activity Context
Auroral intensity follows the Sun’s 11-year magnetic cycle. The cycle peaked in late 2024, producing a 500-year high in geomagnetic activity that year. The cycle is now waning, but the two years following the peak—2025 and 2026—are historically associated with frequent auroral displays, especially after the autumnal equinox.
Data & Statistics
- Kp index: 4 (forecast for Oct 5)
- Geomagnetic storm class: G1 (minor) expected on Oct 5 and early Oct 6
- Moon phase: 27 % illuminated waning crescent on Oct 5, reducing sky brightness for observers
- States with potential visibility: Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan (Upper Peninsula), Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, plus Alaska
Official Statements & Responses
The UK Met Office corroborated the outlook, noting fast solar winds persisting on Oct 5 and a transition to quieter conditions by Oct 6. Both agencies emphasized that a G1 forecast does not guarantee auroral visibility at any specific location and recommended using real-time alert apps for up-to-date information.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Unsettled to active levels are then expected on 06-07 Oct as +CH HSS influence wanes,” — NOAA. According — NOAA.