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Kalshi Adds Transparency Tools to Election Contracts Ahead of Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
New Transparency Features for Election Markets
Kalshi, a U.S. prediction-market platform, announced three new tools for its election contracts as the 2026 midterm elections approach. The additions include: (1) volume tags that label markets with less than $10,000 in traded value as “low-volume,” a condition experts say can cause price volatility and wide bid-ask spreads; (2) Brier scores displayed on each election market to quantify how closely market-generated probabilities have matched actual outcomes; and an activity feed that streams individual trades in real time. The platform introduced these features after observing that participants were more active in local-race contracts than in national-race contracts.
Platform Growth and Market Activity
Kalshi’s co-founder and chief executive officer, Tarek Mansour, described the upcoming midterms as the platform’s “first meaningful prediction-market election.” Internal data cited by the company show that election-related markets have expanded sixfold faster than its football-related markets over the past year. Additionally, the number of viewers of the midterm markets exceeds the number of active traders by roughly five to one, according to Kalshi’s metrics.
How the Features Function
The low-volume tag alerts traders when a market’s total traded dollars fall below the $10,000 threshold, signaling potential price instability. Brier scores, a statistical measure ranging from 0 (perfect accuracy) to 1 (no skill), are calculated by comparing the market’s probability forecasts to eventual election results, giving users a quantitative gauge of market reliability. The activity feed lists each trade as it occurs, providing a transparent view of market participation and price formation.
Potential Impact on Traders and Markets
By furnishing volume indicators, accuracy metrics, and live trade data, Kalshi aims to improve market confidence and reduce information asymmetry among participants. Prediction-market analysts have warned that low-volume markets can experience erratic price swings; the new tags may help traders assess risk more accurately. The Brier-score display could also encourage market makers to refine pricing models, while the activity feed offers a real-time audit trail that may attract institutional interest ahead of the midterm elections.