Senate Race Ratings Shift Toward Democrats as Midterms Near

Four weeks before the 2024 midterm elections, the Cook Political Report adjusted its Senate race outlooks in three key states. Kansas moved from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss-Up,” New Hampshire from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Democrat,” and North Carolina from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.” The changes reflect a broader assessment that the national political environment is increasingly unfavorable for Republican candidates.

Newsweek

• Kansas: Incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, a physician, faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor who leads the nation’s largest United Methodist congregation. Polls show the two candidates virtually tied, a notable development in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since the early 20th century.

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• New Hampshire: Democrat Chris Pappas, a U.S. Representative, is contesting the seat being vacated by Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Former Republican Senator John Sununu, who served from 2003 to 2009, is his opponent. Recent betting markets place Pappas ahead.

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• North Carolina: Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, leads Republican political operative Michael Whatley in most recent polls. The race has seen reduced national Republican spending as resources shift elsewhere.

Newsweek

The Cook Report now estimates that Democrats could pick up two to six Senate seats, a range that includes the four seats needed to regain a majority. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both chambers, and the shifting ratings suggest a tighter contest for control of the Senate.

Newsweek

Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at the Cook Political Report, emphasized that the central question is not whether Democrats will gain seats but how many. Political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro of Columbia University noted that trends across the country favor Democrats, citing declining presidential approval, concerns over the economy and the war in Iran, and rising affordability pressures among voters. He added that Democrats must retain Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire to keep the Senate battle close.

Newsweek

• Cook’s revised projection: Democrats could net 2–6 Senate seats.

Newsweek

• Republican Senate majority: Narrow in both the House and Senate.

Newsweek

• Historical context: Kansas has not elected a Republican senator since 1919; New Hampshire has not seen a Democratic Senate win in roughly 18 years; North Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in about 15 years.

The Hill

• Betting markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) currently show leads for Hamilton in Kansas, Pappas in New Hampshire, and Cooper in North Carolina.

The Hill