Story perspectives

Shell lifts gas output guidance after $16.5B ARC deal

By Drooid · Oct 7, 2026, 3:14 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Shell projects a Q3 2026 refining margin of $42 per barrel.
Shell raised integrated gas output guidance to 740-780 kboe/d, up from 631 kboe/d.
The guidance increase follows the $16.5 billion September 2 purchase of ARC Resources.
Refinery utilisation is set at 93%-97%, down from 102% because of low Rhine water.
Operating cash flow expects a $2.5 billion outflow for German emissions-certificate payments.

History

Historical Context

Since the European Union launched the EU Emissions Trading System in January 2005, covering roughly 12,000 power plants and heavy-industry sites, it has capped about 40 % of EU CO2 emissions. Prices rose to around €20 /tonne by 2012, pressuring firms such as Shell, whose 2026 German refinery now faces a $2.5 billion allowance outflow.

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Story summary

Shell projects a Q3 2026 refining margin of $42 per barrel.
Shell raised integrated gas output guidance to 740-780 kboe/d, up from 631 kboe/d.
The guidance increase follows the $16.5 billion September 2 purchase of ARC Resources.
Refinery utilisation is set at 93%-97%, down from 102% because of low Rhine water.
Operating cash flow expects a $2.5 billion outflow for German emissions-certificate payments.

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