Full Breakdown
2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment Set for Oct. 14, 2026
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Upcoming Announcement and Timing
The Social Security Administration (SSA) will release the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The COLA will apply to benefits paid in January 2027; because January 1 is a federal holiday, SSI recipients receive their “January” payment early in the last days of December.
How the COLA Is Calculated
The COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). SSA averages the CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year and compares that three-month average to the same period a year earlier. The resulting percentage, rounded to the nearest one-tenth of a point, becomes the COLA.
Forecasts and Expected Percentage Range
- AARP projects a 3.6 % increase.
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) now projects 3.5 % (down from 3.9 % in April).
- Analyst Mary Johnson estimates 3.4 %.
Collectively, the forecasts sit in the mid-3 % range (?3.2 %–3.6 %), above the 2.8 % COLA that took effect in 2026 and the largest since the 8.7 % jump in 2023.
Anticipated Dollar Impact on Beneficiaries
- Average monthly retirement benefit: $2,086. A 3.4 % COLA adds about $71 per month; a 3.6 % COLA adds about $75.
- Disabled workers (average $1,635.90) would see $57–$59 more per month.
- Nondisabled widows/widowers (average $1,934.37) would gain $68–$70.
- SSI recipients (average $738.73) would receive an extra $25–$26.
Payment Calendar Nuances
When a scheduled payment day falls on a weekend or holiday, SSA moves the disbursement earlier. The early December payment for SSI (and for beneficiaries who began receiving benefits before May 1997) follows the Jan. 1 holiday rule.
Medicare Part B “Hold-Harmless” Provision
Section 1839(f) of the Social Security Act prevents a Medicare Part B premium increase from reducing a beneficiary’s net check when the premium rise exceeds the dollar amount of the COLA.
- The Federal Register describes the rule as “hold-harmless.”
- 247WallSt notes the 2027 Part B premium is projected to rise $6.60, to $209.50.
If the COLA is around 3.5 % (?$70–$75 on a $2,000 benefit), the premium increase will be fully offset for most retirees, preserving net checks. Higher-income enrollees subject to IRMAA do not receive this protection.
Conflicting Projections & Gaps
Forecasts differ by up to 0.2 percentage points (3.4 %–3.6 %). The official figure will be known after the September CPI is released on Oct. 14, 2026, leaving the exact dollar impact and interaction with the Part B premium uncertain.
What’s Next
- Oct. 14, 2026: SSA announces the official 2027 COLA.
- December 2026: SSA mails personalized COLA notices and posts them in My Social Security accounts.
- Beneficiaries may contact SSA or schedule a local office appointment for questions once notices arrive.