Florida Governor’s Race Tightens as Polls Show Shifting Momentum

A YouGov survey of 3,813 likely voters conducted September 28 to October 5 found Republican Representative Byron Donalds at 47 % and Democrat David Jolly at 45 %, with 7 % undecided. The poll’s margin of error is ±2.7 percentage points.

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Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994. As of June 30, the Florida Division of Elections recorded about 5.57 million registered Republicans, 4.04 million Democrats and 3.32 million unaffiliated voters.

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• YouGov poll (Sept 28-Oct 5): Donalds 47 % vs. Jolly 45 %; 7 % undecided. Sample leans Republican registration 45 % to 31 %.

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• Mason-Dixon poll (Sept 28-Oct 1, 625 voters): Donalds 48 % vs. Jolly 41 %.

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• Freedom Project USA (Sept 25-27): Jolly 48 % vs. Donalds 46 %; earlier September poll showed Jolly 47 % to Donalds 44 %.

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• Hart Research (late Aug): Jolly 46 % vs. Donalds 45 %.

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• Stetson University (Sept 14-21): Donalds 51 % vs. Jolly 39 %.

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• University of North Florida (July): Donalds 46 % vs. Jolly 41 %.

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In the YouGov poll, Jolly leads voters ages 18-29 (59 % to 28 %) and 30-44 (54 % to 35 %). Donalds leads voters 65 + (55 % to 40 %). Jolly edges Hispanic voters (49 % to 44 %); Donalds dominates white voters without a college degree (59 % to 33 %). Among white college graduates the race is nearly tied (47 % to 45 %).

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• Mark Riddle, senior adviser to Jolly, declared that “In this change election, Florida is ready to elect a Democrat.”

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Democratic strategists cite recent special-election victories, such as Emily Gregory’s flip of House District 87, and note shifting Hispanic sentiment and concerns over inflation as factors that could erode the GOP’s advantage.

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Polling results vary widely:

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• The YouGov and Freedom Project USA surveys show Jolly either ahead or within the margin of error.

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• The Mason-Dixon and Stetson University polls give Donalds a double-digit lead.

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Differences in sample size, dates and weighting contribute to the uncertainty.

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• “Cook is saying the contest is no longer a complete lock,” — Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University

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• “For the first time, the Florida governor's race is officially a toss up,” — Democrat David Jolly, senior adviser

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The general election is scheduled for November 3. Early voting begins later this month, and both campaigns are intensifying outreach to younger and Hispanic voters as the race tightens.

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