Full Breakdown
Trump’s Third Texas Rally Aims to Save a Senate Seat
By Drooid · · How we work
The rally and its stakes
On October 7, President Donald Trump headlined a rally at San Antonio’s Freeman Coliseum to back Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton. Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico in a race that analysts say will decide whether the GOP retains its slim Senate majority. The contest will be decided on November 3, the national midterm election day.
Background & Context
Paxton, Texas’s attorney general, defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May primary runoff after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Since then, Paxton has faced securities-fraud charges, an impeachment on corruption allegations, and a public divorce, yet Trump continues to champion him. Texas, a GOP stronghold since 1994, has become more competitive as polls show Democrats narrowing historic margins.
Timeline
- May 19, 2026 – Paxton speaks in McKinney.
- October 3, 2026 – NYT/Siena poll shows Talarico leading 51%-45%.
- October 5, 2026 – Trump rallies in Nebraska.
- October 7, 2026 – Trump’s San Antonio rally for Paxton and congressional candidate Carlos De La Cruz.
- November 3, 2026 – Midterm election.
Data & Statistics
- Polling: The Oct 3 poll gives Talarico a six-point lead; other recent surveys show a three-to-six-point gap.
- Advertising spend: Republicans have bought $158 million in TV ads for the Texas Senate race, with $38 million in future reservations. Democrats have spent about $75 million. Outside groups have contributed roughly $175 million total, including $131 million from the GOP-aligned Texas PAC and $10 million from Trump’s MAGA Inc. super-PAC.
- National sentiment: Reuters/Ipsos finds Trump’s approval at 32%; a CNN Poll of Polls puts it at 34%. Among Hispanic voters in Texas, approval is 24%.
Why It Matters
The seat is a linchpin for GOP control of Congress; a loss would force Republicans to rely on other competitive races in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio. A Democratic win could also boost the party’s long-term strategy in Texas, a state with roughly a third of the national Latino electorate.
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton’s campaign dismissed a New York Times audio of the attorney general saying the Dallas convention “dropped our numbers,” calling the story “manipulated nonsense.” Governor Greg Abbott declined the invitation, citing a packed schedule.
On-the-Ground Reports
The San Antonio crowd mixed enthusiastic MAGA supporters with a handful of protesters who were repeatedly asked to leave. The rally began at 6 p.m. Eastern, with Trump’s remarks scheduled for 7 p.m.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling varies: the Oct 3 Siena poll shows a six-point Democratic lead, while other trackers list a three-point edge. Advertising figures differ across sources, with some reports emphasizing the $158 million Republican ad purchases and others the $131 million Texas PAC contribution. No definitive data yet exists on how Trump’s appearance will translate into voter turnout.
What’s Next
With November 3 less than a month away, both parties are pouring additional funds into Texas, and early voting is set to begin soon. The Paxton-Talarico race will be decisive for the GOP’s ability to hold the Senate majority.