Full Breakdown
Trump Presses the Federal Reserve for a Rate Cut Ahead of Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Trump Calls for Fed Intervention
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT,” demanding an interest-rate cut to boost the economy before the November midterm elections. He reiterated his frustration in a recent interview with *TIME* after the Fed raised rates in early September.
Recent Fed Actions and Economic Data
In response to persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 % target, the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously last month to implement the first rate hike since 2023. The September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a slowdown: employers added just over 15,000 jobs per month in 2025, far below the 121,000 jobs per month added the prior year. Following that report, the CME FedWatch probability that the Fed would raise rates again in October fell from about 51 % at the end of September to 19 % as of the latest Monday reading.
Expert Assessment of Rate-Cut Likelihood
Both economists stress that the Fed’s independence remains intact despite political pressure.
Market and Political Implications
High Treasury-bond yields, partly driven by concerns over potential White House influence, are keeping a check on the federal deficit and on any perceived compromise of Fed independence. While Trump has historically moved markets with his statements, analysts say the current bond-yield environment limits the impact of his social-media posts.
Verbatim Quotes
- “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT,” — Donald Trump, president
- “I think there is an expectation that they will [raise rates] again,” — Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute
- “If there’s any sort of hint that the Fed, the Fed chair has been influenced by the White House, you’ll see that reflected in the market,” — Gbenga Ajilore