Full Breakdown
Trump’s waning support fuels an “enthusiasm gap” ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
The 2026 congressional midterms on November 3 are shaping up as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 8 shows 48 % of 2024 Harris voters are “very enthusiastic” about voting, versus just 30 % of Trump supporters. The same poll recorded a 32 % overall approval rating for Trump, with only 24 % of Hispanic voters approving—a low point across his two terms.
Background & Context
Trump entered his second term in January 2025 promising lower prices and no new foreign wars. Within months the administration launched a war on Iran, gasoline and diesel prices doubled, and tariffs raised import costs. Economic anxiety and the war have been cited as key drivers of declining approval, with cost-of-living topping voter concerns in the Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Data & Statistics
- Voter enthusiasm: 48 % of Harris voters “very enthusiastic” vs. 30 % of Trump voters.
- Presidential approval: 32 % overall; 24 % among Hispanic voters.
- Demographic shifts: Men would vote Democratic over Republican 43 % to 39 %; older voters (50 +) still lean Republican 44 % to 42 %.
- Party finances: Republicans hold roughly $400 million in the Trump campaign war chest.
- State trends: Democratic leads appear in traditionally red states such as Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio and Iowa (NYT/Siena).
Why It Matters / Impact
If the enthusiasm gap depresses Republican turnout, Democrats could capture the Senate majority (51 seats) and potentially retake the House, constraining Trump’s agenda and opening committees to investigations. Republicans hope their cash advantage and rallies will offset the deficit.
Official Statements & Responses
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow warned that “the enthusiasm has to be ginned up among Republicans because turnout is what’s going to determine the outcome of these midterm elections.”
Criticism & Opposition
Legal scholars and election-rights groups have flagged the administration’s $90 Medicare checks and $500 ACA refunds as potential Hatch Act violations, arguing the timing “reads like electioneering.” Professor Kathleen Clark of Washington University noted that using federal funds to influence votes is prohibited. Democratic officials, including Rep. Jamie Raskin, called the payments “political bribes.”
On-the-Ground Reports
In rural southwest Michigan, volunteers report dwindling door-knocking activity and voters saying they are “more focused on everyday life” rather than politics. Conservative mother Lindsay Kronemeyer told the New York Times, “People are just more focused on everyday life.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Approval figures vary: Reuters and Al Jazeera cite 32 % overall approval, while the BBC’s polling average places Trump at 36 % and the Guardian reports an early-October figure of about 37 %. The sources do not explain the discrepancy.
Verbatim Quotes
- “People are just more focused on everyday life,” — Lindsay Kronemeyer
- “The enthusiasm has to be ginned up among Republicans because turnout is what's going to determine the outcome of these midterm elections,” — Charlie Gerow
What’s Next
Voters will cast ballots on November 3, determining control of both chambers of Congress. The outcome will shape the remainder of Trump’s term, influencing policy on the Iran war, inflation, immigration and election-integrity reforms.