Full Breakdown
Trump’s Midterm Challenges: Polls Reveal Waning Enthusiasm and Policy Concerns
By Drooid · · How we work
Midterm Election Landscape
The United States heads toward the November 3 midterm elections, when control of both chambers of Congress will be decided. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 8 found that 48% of 2024 Kamala Harris voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 30% of Donald Trump voters. The same poll showed 13% of Trump supporters were unsure which congressional candidate to back, versus 7% of Harris supporters.
Voter Enthusiasm and Approval Trends
- Presidential approval: A nationwide Reuters/Ipsos survey reported that 32% of Americans approved of Trump’s presidency, a record low for his tenure.
- Gender and age: Men were less enthusiastic than women and, for the first time, favored Democrats over Republicans in a hypothetical congressional race (43% vs 39%). Older voters (age 50+) still gave Republicans a slight edge (44% vs 42%).
- Hispanic voters: Only 24% of Hispanic Americans approved of Trump’s performance. 26% of Hispanic registered voters said they would vote Republican, while 52% indicated they would vote Democratic.
Policy Issues Shaping Voter Sentiment
Immigration Enforcement in Rural Areas
An AP-KFF survey of 2,241 rural voters showed a split view of the administration’s immigration crackdown: roughly one-third said it had a positive impact, one-third said it was negative, and the remainder saw no impact. About 40% of rural respondents identified as MAGA Republicans; two-thirds of this group said the policies benefited their communities.
Artificial-Intelligence Risks
The October 7 poll found that 57% of registered voters believed the Trump administration had not taken AI risks seriously, and 54% said the same about Congress. Overall, 84% viewed AI as a threat to American workers, surpassing concerns about illegal immigration (60%) and foreign competition (74%).
Taxpayer-Funded Election Advertisements
A poll released on October 6 revealed that 86% of Americans thought it inappropriate to use taxpayer money for TV ads featuring the president during an election cycle. Additionally, 71% opposed renaming the Kennedy Center to include Trump’s name.
Official Statements & Responses
- A White House official highlighted the creation of a new AI task force aimed at keeping the United States “ahead of the world” on the technology.
- A White House spokesperson, speaking on the taxpayer-funded ads, described them as “educational, patriotic” messages intended to remind Americans of national values.
Criticism & Opposition
- David Grabowski, a Harvard Medical School professor, said immigrants “take from everybody” and impede access to healthcare for those who need it most.
Data & Statistics
- Enthusiasm gap: 48% (Harris voters) vs 30% (Trump voters) very enthusiastic.
- Presidential approval: 32% approve.
- Gender shift: 43% of men would vote Democrat in a congressional race, 39% Republican.
- Hispanic support: 24% approve; 26% plan to vote Republican, 52% Democratic.
- Rural immigration views: ~33% positive, ~33% negative, ~34% no impact; 40% identify as MAGA Republicans, two-thirds of whom see a positive impact.
- AI risk perception: 57% say administration not serious; 84% see AI as a threat to jobs.
- Ad funding opposition: 86% deem taxpayer-funded ads inappropriate; 71% oppose Kennedy Center renaming.