Full Breakdown
Ken Paxton Blames Gas Prices, the Iran War and Washington Influence for a Tight Texas Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Paxton Cites Gas Prices and the Iran War as Campaign Drag
He added that diesel prices above $6 per gallon are increasing food costs, which he described as “by far our biggest problem.”
Background & Context
Paxton, the Republican nominee, is locked in a competitive race against Democrat James Talarico, a state representative. The contest is a focal point for national Republicans because a loss on November 3 would jeopardize their slim Senate majority. President Donald Trump has repeatedly campaigned for Paxton, including a rally in San Antonio on October 7.
Data & Statistics
- Polling: A New York Times/Siena University poll (Sept 21-30) showed Talarico at 51 % and Paxton at 45 %. A Siena poll released October 3 reported the same margin. A Marist University survey (Sept 17-20) gave Talarico 50 % to Paxton 44 %. Beacon Research (Sept 24-28) reported a tighter 51 %–49 % split, while Stratus Intelligence (Sept 22-24) found the candidates tied at 48 % each. Paxton’s campaign cited an internal poll showing him ahead 48 %–45 %.
- Fundraising: Paxton’s third-quarter haul reached $18 million from over 160,000 donors, doubling his second-quarter total. Republican outside groups poured $122 million into the race in September, with an additional $66 million reserved through Election Day. Talarico’s campaign has spent $61 million on ads and reserved further funds.
- Early voting is set to begin later this month.
Official Statements & Responses
- Nick Maddux, senior adviser to Paxton, defended the comments about the Dallas convention, labeling the New York Times story “manipulated nonsense.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Polling shows a range of leads for Talarico (45 %–51 %) and a single internal poll favoring Paxton, leaving the exact margin unclear.
- Paxton claimed the Dallas midterm convention “dropped our numbers,” while Trump later asserted the convention “helped” Paxton. Both positions appear in separate recordings, with no independent verification of the net effect.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming – you know – from DC,” — Ken Paxton, spokesperson
- “When it’s over $6 per gallon for diesel … people are feeling the pinch,” — Ken Paxton, spokesperson
- “I don’t make the decisions, and I don’t, you know, I don’t know what’s behind some of the decisions,” — Ken Paxton, spokesperson
- “Making some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending — you’re gonna have to do it. Or there is no solution. That’s just the reality. We have to suck it up.” — Ken Paxton, spokesperson
- “Ladies and Gentlemen, upon information and belief, James TalaFREAKo, who is running for the United States Senate in Texas, is MISSING IN ACTION!” — Donald Trump, interview with president
- “Talarico is a serial liar who has spent his entire campaign shamelessly deceiving Texas voters about his radical record with[out] answering the hard questions,” — Nick Maddux, Paxton’s campaign adviser
What’s Next
- President Trump’s October 7 rally with Paxton is expected to boost Republican turnout.
- Early voting opens later this month, giving both campaigns a final window to mobilize supporters.
- The decisive November 3 election will determine whether Texas remains a Republican stronghold and whether the GOP retains control of the Senate.