Full Breakdown
Michigan Senate Race Heats Up: El-Sayed vs. Rogers
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Contest
Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, former Wayne County health director, faces Republican Mike Rogers, a 14-year former U.S. representative, for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters. President Donald Trump endorses Rogers and labels El-Sayed a “radical extremist.” Rogers has shifted from defending Trump’s Canada-tariff policy to calling for an immediate end to the dispute.
Background & Context
El-Sayed won a crowded Democratic primary, defeating Rep. Haley Stevens and positioning himself as a progressive champion of Medicare for All, higher capital-gains taxes, and a ban on corporate PAC spending. He also advocates ending U.S. military aid to Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and has criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide.”
Rogers, former representative for Michigan’s 8th district, released a new ad urging an end to the “tariff war” that he says is raising costs for Michigan families.
Data & Statistics
- Polling: Recent surveys show a tight race. A Fox News poll (Sept. 24-28) placed El-Sayed at 50 % and Rogers at 49 % (±3 pts). A YouGov poll (Sept. 22-Oct. 4) recorded 49 % for El-Sayed and 48 % for Rogers (±7.8 pts). Quantus Insights (762 likely voters) gave El-Sayed 47.6 % vs. Rogers 46.5 % (±7.8 pts).
- Demographic support: El-Sayed leads 77 % of likely Black voters and has endorsements from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Over 850 Jewish leaders signed an open letter backing his campaign, while the Republican-aligned Jewish Coalition Victory Fund launched a $2 million ad effort opposing him.
- Trade impact: Michigan conducts roughly $80 billion in annual trade with Canada; $43.5 billion are imports, with automobiles, trucks, and parts accounting for about 48 % of imports.
- Presidential approval: Recent research shows Trump’s approval in Michigan at –26 points, a steep decline from his 2024 win.
Official Statements & Responses
Rogers’ advertisement stresses, “Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now,” framing the shift as a consumer-price issue.
The Council of American-Islamic Relations’ Michigan executive director warned that Trump’s repeated use of El-Sayed’s full name is a “political tactic” intended to portray him as outside “normative America.”
Criticism & Opposition
Political scientist Nazita Lajevardi described Trump’s rhetoric as an Islamophobic attempt to cast El-Sayed and his wife as outsiders, noting that such language “mobilizes” targeted communities into politics.
Jewish-focused Republican groups have highlighted El-Sayed’s past criticism of Israel, arguing it could alienate Jewish voters despite the broader coalition supporting him.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Poll results vary in lead margin and methodology, with some surveys showing a single-point advantage for El-Sayed and others indicating a wider gap. The dual-citizenship allegation from a 2016 conference video remains unconfirmed; El-Sayed’s campaign says the claim was based on erroneous family information.
What’s Next
The candidates are slated to debate in the coming weeks, a pivotal moment to address tariff policy, health-care reform, and foreign-aid positions. El-Sayed has announced that former President Barack Obama will join him on the campaign trail in Detroit on October 24. The race will conclude with the November midterm election, where the seat could tip the balance of Senate control.