Full Breakdown
San Diego Home Sales Plunge as Mortgage Rates Near Three-Year High
By Drooid · · How we work
Sharp Decline in Pending Sales
Pending home sales in San Diego County fell 13.1% compared with the same month a year earlier, marking the fifth-largest drop among the nation’s 20 biggest metros. Los Angeles led the decline at 15.5%, followed by Seattle, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore. Closed sales were down 9.3% year-over-year, tying with Providence, R.I. for the second-biggest national decline.
Mortgage Rate Surge and Market Context
Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 7.28% at the end of September, the highest level since November 2023, and later announced a rise to 7.40%, a near-three-year peak. In late February, the rate had been 5.98%, meaning monthly payments on a typical $1 million single-family home (20% down) rose from roughly $5,160 to about $5,850. The steep increase in borrowing costs is cited as a primary factor scaring off buyers.
Official Commentary
“Sky-high mortgage rates and the usual fall slowdown,” — Zillow
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said higher rates have also discouraged sellers, noting a drop in listings because many owners need to purchase a new home after selling.
Data Snapshot
- Pending sales decline: 13.1% YoY
- Closed sales decline: 9.3% YoY (tied for second-largest drop)
- Median single-family price: around $1 million throughout the year
- Mortgage rates: 7.28% (end of September) -> 7.40% (latest Freddie Mac announcement)
- Estimated monthly payment: $5,160 (Feb rate) -> $5,850 (Sept rate)
Outlook
Analysts anticipate that the combination of elevated borrowing costs and reduced seller listings will keep both demand and supply constrained through the fall. While price declines appear muted for now, the sustained rate environment could prolong the market slowdown.