Full Breakdown
Ryanair CEO Warns Jet Fuel Costs Could Remain Elevated Through 2028, Prompting Higher Fares
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Ryanair’s 2026 warning on jet-fuel pricing
By October 8, 2026, Ryanair Group chief executive Michael O’Leary told reporters at an Airlines for Europe (A4E) press conference in Brussels that jet fuel is about 50 % more expensive than before the Iran war and could stay at that premium for the next 12 to 18 months, potentially extending pressure into 2028 and forcing ticket prices up by as much as 20 % next summer.
Background & Context: How the Iran war has reshaped European fuel markets
The conflict in Iran has disrupted refinery output and tanker availability, tightening the supply chain for jet fuel across Europe. Attacks on Russian and Middle-Eastern refineries have widened the gap between crude oil prices and finished jet fuel, while diesel market tightness has further lifted fuel premiums. The European Commission noted on September 8 that current refinery output and alternative imports are meeting demand, but warned that additional Middle-East disruptions could tighten supplies.
Data & Statistics: Price levels and market outlook
- Average price: $195.95 per barrel in the week ending October 2, more than double the level a year earlier.
- Historical premium: Jet fuel historically ran 10 %–15 % above Brent crude; it is now about 50 % higher.
- Supply outlook: Kpler estimates roughly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Asia scheduled to arrive over the coming months, enough to avert shortages but insufficient to ease price pressure.
Official Statements & Responses
- Ryanair: O’Leary said airlines must pass higher fuel costs to passengers, calling the situation a “full-blown crisis.”
- European Commission: Stated that current refinery output and imports are meeting demand, but highlighted the risk of further tightening if Middle-East disruptions continue.
- International Energy Agency (IEA): Confirmed that G7-agreed releases of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves are being accelerated, focusing on diesel; no specific jet-fuel release was announced.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The airlines cannot survive unless they pass on these insanely higher fuel costs in the form of higher offers, and the customers will have to pay,” — Michael O’Leary, Ryanair CEO
- “Jet fuel will likely be subject to higher prices, especially as it is deeply linked to the diesel market, which is becoming even tighter and experiencing record prices recently,” — George Shaw, Kpler senior insight analyst
Timeline
- September 8: European Commission reports sufficient refinery output and imports for jet-fuel demand.
- October 2: Jet-fuel price average reaches $195.95 per barrel, double the previous year’s level.
- October 8, 2026: O’Leary warns elevated fuel costs may persist through 2028, with fare hikes expected.
What’s Next
The G7’s accelerated strategic-reserve releases and the IEA’s focus on diesel supplies aim to ease broader energy-market pressure. No timeline has been set for additional jet-fuel releases, leaving airlines and passengers to manage the projected price premium for the next 12- to 18-month horizon.