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California Braces for Potentially Historic El Niño: Local and Statewide Emergency Measures
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Core Event – City and State Declarations Ahead of El Niño
In early October, the Rancho Palos Verdes City Council voted unanimously to proclaim a city-wide local emergency in anticipation of a strong El Niño winter. The declaration expands an earlier emergency that covered only the landslide-prone Portuguese Bend area after severe ground movement in 2022-23 and 2023-24. The move follows Governor Gavin Newsom’s statewide emergency declared on September 21, which activated the California Office of Emergency Services and prompted neighboring jurisdictions—including Long Beach, Los Angeles County, and Seal Beach—to adopt similar measures.
Background & Context
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters see a 90 % chance that El Niño will become a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 75 % chance of historic intensity. The Climate Prediction Center later raised the probability of a record-breaking El Niño to 83 %. A “coastally trapped” Kelvin wave is already raising sea levels along the Southern California coast by six to twelve inches and is expected to keep the water elevated for months. Past strong El Niños (1982-83, 1997-98) produced wet winters and severe flooding; the 2015-16 event, while drier, caused record coastal erosion.
Data & Statistics
- 90 % chance of a very strong El Niño (NOAA).
- 75 % chance of historic intensity (NOAA).
- 83 % chance of a record-breaking event (Climate Prediction Center).
- Kelvin wave adds 6–12 inches to background sea level.
- The local emergency proclamation will remain in effect for 60 days, with a review scheduled for early December.
Official Statements & Responses
Deputy City Manager Catherine Jun explained that the emergency order enables the city to issue protective orders, request mutual aid, and expedite procurement of equipment and supplies. City Manager Ara Mihranian said the city is “hardening the entire city” by staging resources, testing response protocols, and preparing to bypass certain permitting constraints. Governor Newsom linked the upgraded State Operations Center and new satellite-intelligence partnership to “protect more people” as the El Niño develops.
On-the-Ground Reports
Rancho Palos Verdes officials highlighted the city’s history of landslide damage, noting that the 240-acre Portuguese Bend complex suffered extensive home and utility disruptions in recent winters. In Marin County, high tides already flooded streets, prompting emergency crews to clear drains and install temporary barriers. Coastal towns such as Long Beach and Santa Cruz are pre-positioning sandbags and conducting neighborhood workshops to bolster resilience.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
NOAA’s 75 % historic-strength probability contrasts with the Climate Prediction Center’s later 83 % estimate, reflecting evolving model outputs. Forecasts also diverge on precipitation impacts: some experts anticipate above-average rain across Southern California, while others caution that El Niño may instead amplify coastal erosion without delivering the expected rainfall. Precise timing and magnitude of additional Kelvin waves remain uncertain, leaving planners to prepare for a range of scenarios.
What’s Next
The city will review the emergency proclamation in early December and has scheduled a storm-drain assessment for later in October. State officials expect at least two more major Kelvin waves between November and January, coinciding with the season’s king tides and peak storm activity. Continued monitoring through the upgraded State Operations Center and satellite-imagery partnership will guide resource deployment throughout the winter months.