Full Breakdown
Hamas Claims Victory as Israel Gears Up for New Military Operations Ahead of Election
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Core Event
Three years after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas leadership describes its continued resistance as a “victory,” while Israel’s senior security officials and cabinet members warn of a possible resurgence of Hamas attacks before the Oct. 27, 2026, election and outline preparations for a ground maneuver in Gaza City.
Background & Context
The Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault killed 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages, prompting Israel’s longest war in decades. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire on Oct. 10, 2025, left Israel controlling roughly two-thirds of Gaza; Hamas retains the remaining strip. As the third anniversary approaches, Israeli leaders cite the need to “eradicate” Hamas and complete the “mission” of settling the score with the militants.
Data & Statistics
- Israeli military estimates place Hamas’s armed strength at about 30,000 fighters, roughly unchanged since Oct. 7.
- Israeli casualties: almost 500 soldiers killed in the war.
- Palestinian casualties: more than 74,000 killed, including at least 1,400 in the past year after the ceasefire.
- Civilian return: 90 % of residents in the Tekuma region have returned to rebuilt homes. (Israelnationalnews, Jpost)
Official Statements & Responses
- A senior security official told Israel’s political and defense leadership that Hamas views its ability to withstand the IDF for three years as a form of victory and is preparing for an IDF ground maneuver toward Gaza City.
- Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that the IDF is preparing for a scenario in which the Palestinian Authority’s security forces might reverse allegiance and attack Israeli settlers and troops, outlining a contingency plan for a “comprehensive military offensive.”
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will “complete the mission” and eradicate Hamas rule in Gaza, emphasizing Israel’s status as the strongest country in the Middle East.
- Shin Bet director David Zini warned of a possible Hamas attempt to abduct Israeli soldiers around the election period.
Criticism & Opposition
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot criticized the government’s warnings, arguing that Hamas’s continued ability to threaten Israel three years after Oct. 7 shows a strategic failure.
Verbatim Quotes
- “They have not surrendered to an army that everyone says is the strongest in the Middle East.” — senior security official
- “The IDF is preparing for a scenario in which there would be a reversal of allegiance by the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatus and the Tanzim organizations affiliated with it, against the settlers and IDF forces in Judea and Samaria and in the seamline communities,” — Israel Katz
- “This is the victory of spirit over evil, the victory of Israel over its enemies,” — Benjamin Netanyahu
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Casualty figures differ: Reuters reports over 74,000 Palestinian deaths, while Al-Monitor references “tens of thousands” without a precise count.
- Israeli soldier deaths are cited as “almost 500” by Al-Monitor, whereas other sources do not provide a comparable figure, leaving the exact number unclear.
What’s Next
- A decision on a potential ground maneuver in Gaza City is expected after the elections (Oct. 27, 2026).
- The Oct. 10, 2025, ceasefire remains the reference point for the current territorial division of Gaza.
- Israeli officials say any Hamas attack before the election will trigger a “comprehensive” response, though operational timelines are undisclosed.