Full Breakdown
Trump’s Non-Attack Pledge Shifts Global Markets
By Drooid · · How we work
Market Reaction to the Pledge
On the trading day after President Donald Trump announced on social media that the United States would not resume military strikes against Iran before the Nov 3 midterms, equity futures rose while oil prices fell. S&P 500 futures gained about 0.4%, the Dow edged up 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rose roughly 0.7%. Brent crude slipped 1.2% to around $103 a barrel, and U.S. benchmark crude fell 0.9% to about $90.70.
In bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered between 5.23%–5.25% after briefly touching 5.35%. A 30-year Treasury auction that sold $22 billion at just under 5.62% pulled that yield down to 5.60% from 5.73% the day before.
Technology shares fell after a Financial Times report that OpenAI’s annualised revenue was $20 billion lower than previously signalled. Chipmakers dropped 3.4%, and AI-related stocks such as Broadcom, Oracle, Nvidia, and Micron posted double-digit losses.
Background: Iran Conflict and Election Timing
The swing came amid the ongoing Iran-regional conflict that has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had been “pinballing” between $96 and $110 per barrel over the prior month. Trump’s pledge was intended to reduce geopolitical risk ahead of the Nov 3 midterms, easing near-term energy-supply concerns.
Data & Statistics
- Brent crude: ~$103 (-1.2%)
- WTI: ~$90.70 (-0.9%)
- 10-yr Treasury: 5.23%–5.25%
- 30-yr Treasury: 5.60% (down from 5.73%)
- S&P 500 futures: +0.4%
- Dow futures: +0.1%
- Nasdaq futures: +0.7%
- OpenAI revenue estimate: $50 billion (FT) vs. $70 billion (Bloomberg)
- Chip sector: -3.4% overall; Broadcom -4.4%, Oracle -5.5%, Nvidia -2.9%, Micron -4.8%
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump posted that his administration was having “productive discussions” with Iran and would not order new strikes before the Nov 3 elections.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said additional rate hikes “probably will be necessary,” describing timing as “flexible.”
Swiss-based macro strategist Florian Ielpo noted that investors are becoming more discriminating about AI valuations amid elevated government-bond yields.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We are in a period following the central bank policy meetings and before earnings season, which means that markets are more vulnerable to being whiplashed by day-to-day commentary,” — Guy Miller, chief market strategist, Zurich Insurance Group
- “Higher U.S. Treasury yields are starting to create their own demand, buyers are showing up for the right price,” — Tony Miano, global investment strategy analyst, Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
OpenAI’s revenue outlook remains contradictory: the Financial Times reported $50 billion, while Bloomberg cited sources still expecting $70 billion. Analysts are split on how the lower estimate will affect AI-related equities.
Why It Matters
The President’s non-attack pledge lowered geopolitical risk premiums, prompting a modest rally in equity futures and a retreat in oil prices. Simultaneously, the bond market’s reaction to high yields underscores tighter financing conditions for governments and corporations, especially those funding AI infrastructure. The combined effect shows how political signals and corporate earnings expectations can shape energy, equity, and credit markets.