Full Breakdown
Toronto Mayoral Race Narrows to Chow-Bradford Showdown After Alexander’s Exit
By Drooid · · How we work
Two-Way Race Tightens
Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander withdrew on Oct 6, leaving incumbent mayor Olivia Chow and former city councillor Brad Bradford as the only front-runners. Polls taken afterward show the contest “coming down to the wire,” with the margin between the two candidates hovering within typical polling error ranges.
Recent Polls Show Narrowing Margins
- Mainstreet Research (early October) found Chow ahead of Bradford by 2.9 points among decided and leaning voters, within the poll’s ±3.1 % margin of error.
- Nanos Polling (late September-early October) reported Chow at 52.4 % versus Bradford’s 42.6 %.
- Liaison Strategies poll released before Alexander’s exit placed Chow at 48 %, Bradford at 40 %, and Alexander at 9 %.
These figures illustrate a tightening race, with the exact size of Chow’s lead varying by pollster.
Candidate Strategies and Voter Demographics
Chow’s campaign stresses continuity of her homelessness and transit initiatives, citing an eight-percent drop in homelessness. Bradford has pledged to cut part of the municipal land-transfer tax and argues that “supportive housing should be prioritized” without expanding bureaucracy. Both are courting Alexander’s former supporters; Bradford’s team invited those voters to consider his campaign as “their home.”
Demographically, Chow leads in downtown, Scarborough and North York, while Bradford leads in Etobicoke and among male voters. Younger voters (18-34) favor Chow; the 35-54 age group shows a narrower gap.
Official Statements & Campaign Responses
- Olivia Chow’s team highlighted her record on homelessness, pointing to the city’s Rent Bank funding, supportive-housing projects and shelter-bed expansions as proof that her approach “works.”
- Political strategist Andrew Tumilty warned that assuming Alexander’s residual support will automatically flow to Bradford would be “dangerous” for the latter’s campaign.
Conflicting Poll Results & Data Gaps
The Mainstreet and Nanos polls differ markedly in the size of Chow’s lead—2.9 points versus nearly 10 points—reflecting divergent sampling frames and timing. Both agree on demographic trends, yet neither provides definitive insight into how Alexander’s supporters will ultimately vote, leaving uncertainty for the final weeks of the campaign.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With the exit of Chris Alexander, this race now is truly coming down to the wire” — Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research
- “Scarborough could still be a key battleground. Even though Chow has the advantage among decided voters, that undecided number in Scarborough jumps to 32 per cent, one out of every three,” — Nik Nanos, chief data scientist
- “I think it would be dangerous for (Bradford’s) campaign to assume that whatever support Alexander still has is going to go to Bradford,” — Andrew Tumilty, political strategist
- “To everyone who supported Chris, and to everyone who looked at this race hoping for something better than what we've got, this campaign is your home,” — Brad Bradford
What’s Next
Early voting has begun, and the municipal election is approaching. Campaigns will focus on voter turnout, particularly among young voters and undecided residents of Scarborough, as the final stretch of the race unfolds.