Full Breakdown
Surge in Tanker Attacks Threatens Hormuz Shipping Corridor
By Drooid · · How we work
Highest Weekly Attack Count Since War Began
During the week of September 28 – October 5, maritime-security sources recorded at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the Strait of Hormuz—the highest number in a single week since the war began on February 28. The United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) later logged nine incidents for the same period, reflecting its slower verification process. Additional strikes were reported off Qatar and near the United Arab Emirates later in the month, indicating that the threat is expanding beyond the strait itself.
Background & Context
The conflict erupted on February 28 when U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian targets, prompting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to threaten to block “illicit routes” through Hormuz. Iran has repeatedly asserted control over the waterway, while U.S. Central Command (Centcom) reported that 20 million barrels of crude passed through the strait on October 7, rejecting Iranian claims of a closure. Crude flows now average 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly 40 % below pre-war levels, and overall Gulf exports sit at about 15.3 million bpd.
Data & Statistics
- Attack tally: 12 attacks (Reuters, Bairdmaritime, Marine Insight) vs. 9 recorded by IMO vs. 14 claimed by Iranian media.
- Vessel transits: Kpler counted seven commodity vessels on October 6, the lowest since July 23; LSEG reported eight vessels the same day and ten on October 8. Daily transits have fallen from > 20 pre-war to roughly 10 now.
- Crude flow: 8.5 million bpd through Hormuz (? 40 % of pre-war level); total Gulf shipments at 15.3 million bpd (? 90 % of pre-war volume).
- Shipping costs: VLCC charter rates have risen from $65,000 per day pre-war to $1.6 million per day. Crew wages for Hormuz crossings can reach $100,000 per month plus a $50,000 bonus per passage. War-risk insurance now equals 6-10 % of a vessel’s hull value, up to $20 million for a supertanker voyage.
- Freight earnings: The Baltic Exchange reported daily round-trip earnings of $1.22 million for a standard VLCC on the Gulf-China route.
Official Statements & Responses
IRGC officials have declared that any ship using “unauthorised routes” will be pursued. IRGC adviser Majid Mirahmadi claimed only 10 ships now transit the strait daily, compared with 125 before the war, a figure disputed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said Iran has “lost complete control.” Centcom reiterated that commercial flows remain open and that U.S. forces have escorted over 1.25 billion barrels of crude through the corridor.
Criticism & Opposition
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, described the situation as “not a sustainable new normal.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Attack counts: Sources differ between 12, 9, 10 and 14 incidents for the same week.
- Transit volumes: Kpler reports seven vessels on October 6, LSEG eight, while other analytics note ten transits on October 8.
- Control of the strait: IRGC asserts full control; U.S. officials claim the waterway remains open; Marco Rubio contests Iran’s claim.
- Casualty verification: The identity of attackers for the strike off Qatar remains unverified, and Iranian claims of striking the NV Sunshine lack independent confirmation.