Full Breakdown
Byelection Looms in Parry Sound–Muskoka: A Test for Conservatives and Liberals
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Conservative MP Scott Aitchison announced he will leave Parliament after the fall sitting, triggering a federal byelection in the Parry Sound–Muskoka riding. The vacancy will be declared once his seat is formally empty, and parties are already mobilising for what could be a competitive contest in a district held by the Conservatives for more than two decades.
Background & Recent Results
Aitchison has represented the riding since the 2019 election. In the 2025 federal election he secured 52.2 % of the vote, defeating Liberal candidate Geordie Sabbagh, who earned 42.6 %—a margin of roughly 9.6 percentage points. The Liberals have not won the riding since 2004, making the upcoming byelection an early indicator of whether the party can convert its strong 2025 showing into a victory.
Key Figures
Official Statements & Campaign Outlook
She added that the party will seek a candidate “committed to the riding” who can deliver federal programs and listen to constituents.
Scott Aitchison expressed confidence in his party’s prospects: “I think that there'll be a lot of interest and I think that we'll have a good shot at keeping it,” — Scott Aitchison He also urged prospective candidates to prioritize constituent needs over partisan rivalry, noting, “You’re part of a team, especially in partisan politics and federal politics,” “You're part of a team, especially in partisan politics and federal politics,” — Scott Aitchison and emphasizing the importance of listening to all voters, even those with differing views.
Data & Statistics
- Conservative hold: >20 years (since 2004).
- 2025 vote share: Conservatives 52.2 %, Liberals 42.6 %.
- Liberal margin in 2025: ?9.6 pp behind the Conservative incumbent.
The byelection will serve as an early barometer of Liberal momentum in a traditionally Conservative stronghold and could shape party strategies ahead of the next general election.