Full Breakdown
Troy Jackson Holds Narrow Lead Over Susan Collins in Maine Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Race Overview
Recent polling shows Democratic former state Senate president Troy Jackson edging incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate contest. The Washington Post–Schar School poll, conducted between the end of September and early October, found 50 % of likely voters supporting Jackson versus 46 % for Collins, a margin that falls within the poll’s 3.6 % error range. A separate Marist University poll taken in early October reported Jackson at 51 % and Collins at 47 % overall, with a four-point advantage among all respondents and a seven-point lead among independents.
Candidate Backgrounds & Campaign Dynamics
Jackson entered the race in July after the original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew following rape allegations. Backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Jackson’s platform includes Medicare for all, abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and federal protection of abortion rights. Collins, first elected in 1996 and chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, emphasizes her bipartisan record and ability to deliver federal dollars to Maine—a point highlighted by her 24-point lead in the Washington Post–Schar poll on that issue. Former President Barack Obama publicly endorsed Jackson, while Vice President JD Vance visited Maine twice this year to rally Republican support. President Donald Trump, whose approval rating stood at 36 % in the Washington Post–Schar poll, has hinted at campaigning in the state.
Voter Sentiment & Issues
Both polls indicate that voters view Jackson more favorably on abortion, cost of living, and health care. Collins retains strength among older voters (54 % of those over 45 favor her versus 44 % for Jackson) and among respondents who believe she will bring more federal funding to the state (54 % versus 24 % for Jackson). The Marist poll also revealed that 44 % of voters see their congressional ballot primarily as a vote against Trump, while 16 % view it as a vote for him.
Potential Senate Impact
If Collins wins a sixth term, she would become Maine’s longest-serving senator and maintain the Republican hold on a seat that could influence the overall balance of power in the Senate. Conversely, a Jackson victory would contribute to Democratic efforts to gain control of the chamber in the upcoming election.
Outlook
With the election less than a month away, both campaigns are intensifying outreach and fundraising. The close margins in multiple polls suggest a highly competitive race, and the final outcome will hinge on voter turnout among independents and older constituents.