NY-21 House Race Tightens as Open Seat Draws National Attention

Representative Elise Stefanik is retiring from New York’s 21st Congressional District, a rural “North Country” seat that voted for President Donald Trump by roughly 20 points in the 2024 election. The open-seat contest pits Republican Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien in the November 3 midterms. Historically a Republican-leaning district, it has shifted rightward over the past decade but was once held by Democrats, including former President Barack Obama’s victories and Congressman Bill Owens until 2015. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still classify the race as “Likely Republican,” indicating a competitive but GOP-favored outlook.

Newsweek

Recent surveys show a fluid picture. A Siena University poll conducted from September 30 to October 6 gave Gendebien a 4-point edge (46 % to 42 %). An Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters from September 29 to October 4 showed Constantino ahead 48 % to 45 %. Earlier, a J.L. Partners poll (August 15-17) had Constantino up 13 points (53 % to 40 %), while a SurveyUSA poll (August 4-8) favored Gendebien 43 % to 39 %. Prediction-market odds on Friday placed Constantino at about 71-72 % chance of winning, a slight decline from the prior week’s 83-84 % odds.

Newsweek

Republican senior adviser Alex DeGrasse, representing Constantino, disputed the Siena poll’s methodology, claiming it omitted a far-left write-in candidate and thus skewed results.

Newsweek

“They show Blakeman underperforming by minimum 5 points compared to independent polling, and internal polling from both Gendebien and Constantino. If these numbers were accurate, national Democrats would spending here, but they are not. Gendebien has said publicly, his campaign is close to broke,” — Are Saying Alex DeGrasse

Newsweek