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EIA Projects 21% Higher Heating-Oil Costs This Winter

By Drooid · Oct 10, 2026, 5:13 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects heating-oil users will pay about 21% more this winter.
Natural-gas-heated homes are expected to spend roughly 9% less this winter.
National Energy Assistance Directors Association estimates oil heating cost will rise to $2,627, a 50% jump.
Massachusetts reported heating-oil price $6.12 per gallon, up about 73% YoY.
El Niño may peak Oct-Dec 2026 with a 75% chance of historic strength.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC, led by Saudi King Faisal, imposed an oil embargo on the United States and other Israel supporters, driving world oil from $3 to nearly $12 per barrel—a 300% jump that spiked U.S. gasoline prices by mid-1974. The shock spurred Nixon’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve and energy-efficiency programs, frameworks now cited as the U.S. response to today’s heating-oil price surge.

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Story summary

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects heating-oil users will pay about 21% more this winter.
Natural-gas-heated homes are expected to spend roughly 9% less this winter.
National Energy Assistance Directors Association estimates oil heating cost will rise to $2,627, a 50% jump.
Massachusetts reported heating-oil price $6.12 per gallon, up about 73% YoY.
El Niño may peak Oct-Dec 2026 with a 75% chance of historic strength.

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