Full Breakdown
Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico: Texas Senate Race Tightens Amid Intra-Party Feud and Massive Outside Spending
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat State Representative James Talarico are locked in a close contest for the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. John Cornyn. Independent polls in early October show Talarico ahead by two to six points, while Republican-aligned fundraising tops $200 million.
Background & Context
Paxton secured the Republican nomination after a bruising primary runoff against Cornorn in May 2026, a contest marked by personal animosity. Cornorn, former Texas attorney general, has repeatedly criticized Paxton’s conduct and refused to endorse him. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the runoff, reshaping the primary dynamics.
Data & Statistics
- Polling: A New York Times/Siena poll (late September) gave Talarico 51 % to Paxton’s 45 %. A Fox News poll showed a 51-49 split, within the margin of error. The RealClearPolling average (early October) indicates a three-point Democratic edge.
- Spending: The Texas Tribune reports over $205 million in independent expenditures, with the majority directed toward Paxton. Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas PAC spent $122 million in September, plus $30 million from Trump’s MAGA Inc. Democratic-aligned groups have spent roughly $65 million.
- Demographics: Talarico leads Black, Hispanic, and voters under 35. Paxton’s base is strongest among white evangelical Christians and voters 65 +.
Official Statements & Responses
- Donald Trump reiterated his support at an October 7 rally in San Antonio, urging voters to “get this guy elected.”
- Paxton’s campaign dismissed a leaked audio of remarks about Cornorn as “a story that doesn’t exist,” while noting Paxton has reached out to Cornorn by phone and text. Senior adviser Nick Maddux praised Cornorn’s “decades of service.”
- Rep. Michael McCaul warned that supporting Paxton “was not my first choice” and could affect down-ballot races.
On-the-Ground Reports
Talarico missed several events after being diagnosed with the flu on September 30. Paxton has been touring the state, including a joint appearance with Trump in San Antonio on October 7, where the crowd chanted “Where is James Talarico?”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Poll Discrepancies: The NYT/Siena poll shows a six-point Democratic lead, while Fox News and RealClearPolling present narrower margins within statistical error. No consensus exists on the exact size of Talarico’s advantage.
- Spending Figures: The Texas Tribune’s $205 million total differs from AdImpact’s $122 million September figure and other $200 million-plus estimates. Precise allocation between TV, digital, and direct campaign spending remains unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
- October 14: Talarico appears at a town-hall hosted by CNN and Jubilee Media in Fort Worth.
- October 19: Early voting opens statewide.
- November 3: Election Day.
The race remains a bellwether for Republican prospects nationally, with both parties investing unprecedented resources while internal divisions continue to shape voter perceptions.