Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Trump Backs Paxton Amid Intra-Party Feud and Democratic Surge
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – Rally, Rhetoric, and Rising Stakes
The rally was repeatedly disrupted by protesters, some of whom were escorted out by police. It underscored the intensifying contest for a Senate seat that has not been held by a Democrat since 1988.
Background & Context – A Fractured GOP and a Viable Democrat
Ken Paxton entered the 2026 race after a bruising Republican primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Trump originally signaled an endorsement of Cornyn but switched to Paxton a week before the runoff, a move that “dealt a crushing blow” to Cornyn’s campaign (Rawstory analysis).
State Rep. James Talarico emerged as a serious Democratic challenger. A New York Times/Siena College poll released in late September showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45% among likely voters.
Data & Statistics – Money, Polls, and Public Opinion
- Republican super-PACs have spent an additional $30 million in Texas.
- National GOP groups have poured well over $100 million into the general election in Texas.
- The Associated Press reports total Republican spending on Texas elections exceeds $300 million.
- Polls show Paxton trailing Talarico by up to six points.
- Trump’s approval rating in Texas stands at 32% (Reuters/Ipsos). Registered voters currently prefer Democrats 44%-37% (Guardian).
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton’s campaign dismissed a leaked audio as “a story that doesn’t exist” and said Paxton has reached out to Cornyn for a conversation. Senior adviser Nick Maddux expressed hope Cornyn would join the effort to preserve the Senate majority.
Cornyn’s office, represented by strategist Rob Jesmer, denied that the restaurant incident described in the audio ever occurred and reiterated Cornyn’s support for the Republican ticket.
Talarico’s campaign highlighted his recent flu diagnosis, noting he continues to engage voters via virtual events and a scheduled CNN town hall.
Criticism & Opposition – Intra-Party Dissent
Cornyn has long criticized Paxton’s indictment on state securities-fraud charges, calling it an “embarrassment” in 2022 and later labeling Paxton “flawed, self-centered and shameless.” Rep. Michael McCaul warned that Paxton “was not my first choice” and could depress down-ballot turnout (CNN).
On-the-Ground Reports – Protests and Public Reaction
During the October 7 rally, at least half a dozen demonstrators interrupted Trump’s remarks. One protester was physically assaulted by an older Trump supporter before being escorted out.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Audio Authenticity and Health Claims
CNN has not independently verified the September 24 audio in which Paxton alleged Cornyn “wants me to lose.” Cornyn’s representative denied the incident, creating a factual dispute.
Talarico’s statements about battling the flu and managing Type 1 diabetes have not been independently verified.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next – Election Countdown
With 26 days remaining until the November midterm election, both campaigns are intensifying outreach. Talarico’s team plans a CNN town hall next week, while Republican operatives continue to deploy national funding and high-profile surrogates to bolster Paxton’s standing. The outcome will determine whether Democrats can break a decades-long Republican hold on Texas’s Senate seat.