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Massive Occupational Shifts Expected by 2035, Study Finds
By Drooid · · How we work
Projected Occupational Shifts by 2035
McKinsey research released in 2026 projects that the U.S. labor market will contain more jobs in 2035 than today, but the composition of those jobs will change dramatically. An estimated 11 million Americans will need to leave occupations that are shrinking and move into entirely different fields. The study predicts an average of 770,000 workers per year will cross occupational lines over the next decade—3.6 times the historical transition rate. The surge is comparable to the COVID-19-driven shift, which lasted only one to two years, whereas the current trend is expected to persist for at least ten years.
Skills Gap and Retraining Pathways
Automation is projected to absorb 80 percent of the hours performed by workers in office and administrative support, the occupational group facing the largest job losses. The research highlights the administrative assistant as a case study: the role already encompasses 58 percent of the tasks performed by project managers, such as planning, scheduling, and stakeholder coordination. Consequently, the transition to project-manager positions is described as “real but manageable.” Since 2022, job postings requiring AI fluency have risen elevenfold, adaptability requirements fivefold, and demands for resilience, curiosity, and willingness to learn threefold. More than 70 percent of workers will need new skills even if they remain with their current employer.
Employer and Policy Recommendations
Employers are urged to create direct pathways to growing occupations by hiring based on demonstrated skills, eliminating unnecessary degree screens, and using practical assessments and apprenticeships. The study suggests that states should streamline occupational licensing and adopt modular, stackable credentials, while colleges and training agencies design curricula “backward” from the skill requirements of expanding jobs. Government incentives could include subsidized education, tax breaks for employee retraining, and tax credits for companies that facilitate skill acquisition.
Data Highlights
- 11 million workers projected to need new occupations by 2035.
- 770,000 annual occupational transitions, 3.6 × historical rate.
- 80 % of office-admin hours vulnerable to automation.
- 58 % task overlap between administrative assistants and project managers.
- Postings demanding AI fluency up 11 ×, adaptability up 5 ×, resilience/curiosity up 3 × since 2022.
- Over 70 % of workers will require new skills regardless of employer change.
The analysis underscores that coordinated effort among employers, educators, and policymakers will be essential to navigate the decade-long reshaping of the U.S. workforce.