Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Slips Nationwide as Midterms Loom
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Findings: Nationwide Decline and State-Level Weakness
A rolling Civiqs tracker of 135,005 registered-voter responses collected between January 20 2025 and October 8 2026 shows President Donald Trump holding a negative net approval rating in 39 of the 50 states. Positive nets appear only in Wyoming (+14), North Dakota (+11) and West Virginia (+10). In competitive Senate battlegrounds, Trump’s net is negative in Texas (-20), Iowa (-21), Ohio (-18) and Alaska (-16).
Background & Context
Trump began his second term on January 20 2025. Early in the term his national net approval hovered near zero; by fall 2026 it had slipped “underwater” in most states, echoing the midterm-cycle dip that preceded the 2018 loss of 41 House seats.
Demographic Shifts
Three Economist/YouGov cross-tab polls conducted September 18 2026, September 25 2026, and October 2 2026 show modest gains among Black and Hispanic respondents. Black net approval improved from –84 to –65, while Hispanic net approval moved from –37 to –17. Both groups remain deeply negative; White respondents’ net stayed around –15.
Data & Statistics
- The Economist/YouGov (Oct 6 2026): 35 % approve, 61 % disapprove, net –26.
- Pew Research Center (early Oct 2026): 30 % approve, 68 % disapprove, net near –38.
- State-level nets (Civiqs): negative in 39 states, positive in 11; notable negatives in Maine (-32), Texas (-20), Iowa (-21), Ohio (-18) and Alaska (-16).
Criticism & Opposition
Pollster David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, warned that Trump’s current approval “is significantly lower” than the 44 % recorded in October 2018, a level that preceded a loss of 41 House seats.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
National approval figures differ across sources: The Economist reports 35 % approval, Pew 30 %, while RealClearPolitics places the figure in the high-30s. State-level demographic breakdowns rely on the three Economist/YouGov polls, leaving uncertainty about how gains among Black and Hispanic voters translate to vote intent. Sampling margins of error (±3.4 pp for the full sample) widen for sub-group estimates, reducing statistical certainty.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The job approval in October of 2018 was 44%, and he lost 41 House seats,” — Pollster David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center
What’s Next
The November midterm elections will test whether the president’s declining approval translates into losses for Republican Senate and House candidates. Polls show Democrats leading Republicans by eight points nationally, and the RNC’s anticipated reallocation of campaign funds could reshape the final weeks of the race.