Full Breakdown
NFL Pushes State Regulation of Prediction Markets Amid Federal-Agency Dispute
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
The National Football League filed an amicus brief urging courts to let individual states regulate prediction-market platforms that allow wagers on coaching decisions, officiating calls, injuries and other game-related outcomes. The league argues that these markets function as sports gambling and should be subject to the same state-level oversight that governs online sportsbooks.
Official Statements & Responses
Brooke Nethercott, public affairs director for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency has been in contact with the league since the outset of its rulemaking agenda:
“Since day 1, the CFTC has engaged with the NFL regarding the agency’s rulemaking agenda and policy priorities. It’s unfortunate the NFL declined to sign an MOU with the CFTC which would’ve provided the league the ability to better discuss, cooperate, and exchange information with us to promote the integrity and resilience of prediction markets,” — Brooke Nethercott, public affairs director for the CFTC
The CFTC noted that it is already policing sports-related contracts listed on most U.S. commodities exchanges and that its ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the league’s concerns.
Kalshi, a prediction-market operator, emphasized its commitment to market integrity and cited partnerships with other major leagues:
“Kalshi’s top priority is the integrity of its markets. That priority is reflected in the fact that other major sports league and integrity partner in the United States is partnering with Kalshi—including the MLB, NHL, USTA and others,” — Kalshi
Polymarket, another operator, echoed this stance, stating it has built advanced surveillance tools and is collaborating with the CFTC, the SEC and professional leagues to create a unified federal framework.
Criticism & Opposition
The CFTC’s Brooke Nethercott highlighted that the league declined to sign a memorandum of understanding that would have facilitated data sharing and cooperation, suggesting a missed opportunity for joint oversight. A separate CFTC source argued that the league’s approach resembles “regulatory capture” and that a federal framework established by Congress is more effective than a patchwork of state laws.
Data & Statistics
- The NFL estimates “billions of dollars” in annual wagers on prediction markets tied to its games.
- Prediction-market contracts are now listed on “nearly every US commodities exchange,” according to the CFTC.
What’s Next
New Jersey is challenging a federal appeals-court ruling that favored Kalshi’s position that federal commodities law preempts state gambling regulations. The outcome could shape whether prediction markets remain under state jurisdiction or become uniformly regulated at the federal level.
