Senate Forecasts Tighten as Midterms Near

Nonpartisan forecasters have moved several Senate contests closer to the Democratic column less than a month before the November election. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball upgraded races in Kansas, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska and South Carolina, reclassifying them from solid Republican to “toss-up” or “lean Democrat.” The adjustments reflect a perception that President Trump’s low approval ratings, the war in Iran and the tariff dispute with Canada are creating headwinds for Republican candidates.

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Republican incumbents have traditionally relied on Trump’s popularity, but his “underwater” approval in many states is prompting some GOP hopefuls to distance themselves on issues such as the Iran war and the Canada tariff. Democrats see a favorable environment but note that a swing toward the party is not guaranteed. The Senate map includes several historically Republican strongholds—Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas—where Democratic recruitment has produced competitive bids.

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• Ad spending: Republicans have earmarked more than $51 million for future ads in Iowa, while Democrats have reserved just under $5 million.

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• Presidential margins: Trump won Alaska and Iowa by 13 points in 2024.

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• Historical odds: Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932; Iowa has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Tom Harkin’s 2008 reelection.

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• Polling snapshots: A late-September Quantus Insights poll tied the Alaska race; other polls show incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) with a narrow lead. In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is reported to be “narrowly leading” her Democratic challenger.

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Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) rejected a ProPublica allegation of a pay-to-play scheme, calling it a “partisan hit.” Mary Peltola’s (D-AK) campaign denied New York Times-reported accusations of abusive behavior toward staff, attributing any perceived difficulty to personal grief. Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned in Alaska, while President Trump is slated to visit the state later this week. In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall’s (R) office affirmed compliance with campaign-finance and Senate-ethics rules after scrutiny over medical-debt lawsuits.

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ProPublica’s investigation alleges Collins sought contributions in exchange for defense contracts with Navatek; her campaign dismisses the claim as partisan. The New York Times reported that Peltola faced staff-abuse allegations; her campaign says the accusations are unsubstantiated. In Texas, Republican candidate Ken Paxton (R) has been criticized for volatile remarks and leaked audio, prompting President Trump to label him “a little controversial” while encouraging a debate with Democrat James Talarico.

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Polling in Alaska presents divergent pictures: Quantus Insights shows a tie, whereas other pollsters indicate Murkowski holding a narrow lead. In Ohio, some voters mistakenly believe former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is the incumbent, potentially skewing perceptions of the special election dynamics. No definitive data are provided on how the alleged staff-abuse claims against Peltola have affected voter sentiment.

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• “This race could still end up being closer than it should be given the national environment,” — Political Report’s Jessica Taylor

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The Senate races will be decided in November, with both parties intensifying ad purchases and candidate visits in the final weeks. Vice President Harris’s Alaska appearance and President Trump’s scheduled visit are expected to shape voter attitudes in that state. Inside Elections rates the Iowa contest as a “tilt Republican,” while Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball maintain “toss-up” classifications for several battlegrounds, indicating that the final outcome remains uncertain.

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