Ohio Early Voting Shows Democratic Gains in Historically Republican Counties

Data released after the first days of early in-person voting in Ohio reveal a notable increase in Democratic participation. Affiliated Democrats now comprise a larger share of pre-election voters than they did two years ago, even in counties that gave former President Donald Trump a 20-point or greater margin in 2024. At that point in 2024, Republicans led by 30 points in those counties; the gap has narrowed to roughly five points, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. Overall, the electorate is about 27 points more Democratic than at the same stage in 2024. Early voting turnout is currently about 11 % of the total early-voting volume recorded in 2022.

CNN

In the strongest Trump-aligned counties, the partisan gap has moved nearly 11 points toward Democrats compared with the same point in 2024. Conversely, counties that heavily supported former Vice President Kamala Harris are about 25 points more Democratic than they were at the same stage last cycle, with turnout in those areas reaching 74 % of the 2024 level versus 67 % in the strongest Trump counties.

CNN

Catalist, a data-analytics firm serving Democratic campaigns and advocacy groups, reports a similar 7-point Democratic advantage in Virginia, though that gap has contracted since earlier in the month. In New Jersey, where voters register by party, Democrats performed weakly in 2024, with Harris beating Trump by less than six points—the narrowest Democratic margin since 1992. Catalist notes that the counties most favorable to Trump in New Jersey have also shown the largest partisan shifts toward Democrats in pre-election voting.

CNN

The shifting early-voting landscape coincides with a CNN poll that places Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown six points ahead of Republican Jon Husted and gives Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton an eight-point lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. If early-voting trends persist, they could tighten races that were previously considered solidly Republican.

CNN

These observations are based on early-voting returns, which represent a fraction of total turnout and may not reflect final outcomes. Party registration data does not indicate ballot choices, and historical patterns show Republicans often vote later in person or on Election Day. Additionally, mail voting in Ohio is currently at just 25 % of its 2024 level, while early-in-person voting stands at 72 % of the 2024 figure, suggesting a broader shift away from mail ballots that could affect later voting behavior.

CNN