Full Breakdown
One Nation Nears Queensland Labor in State-Level Polling
By Drooid · · How we work
Polling Snapshot
A Resolve Political Monitor poll released in mid-October 2026 shows Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party holding 21 % of the primary vote in Queensland, placing it within the three-percentage-point margin of error from the lagging Labor Party. The Liberal-National Party (LNP) under Premier David Crisafulli remains the clear front-runner with 32 % support.
Context and Recent Trends
The poll follows two waves of data collection with registered voters from September 1 to 5 and October 6 to 10, encompassing 868 respondents. One Nation’s share rose from 20 % to 21 % in this latest snapshot, a modest gain that sits alongside small increases for the Greens (to 11 %) and independents (to 7 %). Collectively, non-major parties now account for roughly 44 % of primary-vote intentions.
The polling period coincides with heightened scrutiny of the state government’s handling of the Child Safety system and Queensland’s first credit-rating downgrade in almost two decades. Despite these pressures, Premier Crisafulli’s personal ratings remain strong, while Opposition Leader Steven Miles’s net likeability stayed at –6.
Numbers and Rankings
- LNP (Crisafulli) – 32 % primary vote; preferred premier support 41 %
- Labor (Miles) – primary vote below 2012 levels; preferred premier support 24 %
- One Nation – 21 % primary vote, up 1 % from the previous poll; historically peaked at 24 % earlier in the year
- Greens – 11 % primary vote (up 1 %)
- Independents – 7 % primary vote (up 1 %)
The poll’s margin of error is three percentage points, meaning One Nation’s position remains statistically close to Labor’s.
Official Commentary
Jim Reed, director of Resolve Political Monitor, emphasized the stability of the vote landscape:
“Crisafulli still achieves quite healthy personal ratings, so there’s no sign the electorate have tired of him during his first term,” — Jim Reed, resolve director
Reed added that “Crisafulli still achieves quite healthy personal ratings, so there’s no sign the electorate have tired of him during his first term.” The poll’s findings suggest that while One Nation’s rise has not yet translated into state-level parliamentary representation, its growing share keeps it within striking distance of Labor as the next Queensland election approaches.
Future Outlook
Queensland’s next state election is scheduled for late October 2028. Premier Crisafulli has reiterated a pledge to introduce optional preferential voting, though the reform has not yet been enacted. One Nation’s continued polling strength may influence campaign strategies and policy debates leading up to that contest.