Full Breakdown
Conservative Poll Surge Tied to Inheritance-Tax Proposal
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Following the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Kemi Badenoch announced a plan to exempt family homes from inheritance tax and to allow couples to pass £1 million tax-free to their children beyond the value of the home. The proposal, framed as a “simple choice” for voters, coincided with a rise in the party’s standing in two recent opinion polls.
Poll Numbers and Shifts
- Opinium poll (conducted Wed-Fri) – The Conservatives rose three points to 20 % of voting intention, while Labour held 29 %, Reform fell to 23 %, the Greens slipped to 9 %, and the Liberal Democrats stayed at 9 %. Electoral Calculus projected the result could translate to 114 Conservative seats versus 336 for Labour.
- YouGov poll (fielded 2,393 adults between October 11 and 12) – The Tories reached 23 % (their highest rating since Badenoch became leader), Labour dropped to 24 %, Reform fell to 21 %, the Liberal Democrats rose to 12 %, and the Greens held 11 %.
Official Statements & Responses
- “When that election comes, there will be a simple choice between Conservative plans to get Britain working again and a Labour Party that keeps putting up taxes, refuses to cut welfare and won’t fund our defence.” — James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium
Reform UK Decline and Farage Controversy
Reform UK’s support slipped to 21 % in the YouGov poll, its lowest since the 2024 general election. The party has been beset by internal turmoil, including a donations scandal that forced the resignation of chief of staff Dan Jukes and policy director James Orr. Nigel Farage’s personal favourability also fell sharply, with 69 % of Britons holding an unfavourable view and a net favourability rating of –45, matching that of former Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer before his resignation.
Why It Matters
The inheritance-tax proposal has re-energised the Conservative brand of “aspirational” taxation, narrowing the gap with Labour and pushing Reform further down the rankings. If a snap election is called, the party’s refreshed fiscal narrative could prove decisive in a tightly contested political landscape.
